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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Vitas who wrote (2959)	12/28/1998 9:56:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

INDEX UPDATE ========================= Last week I got a CLASS 1 SELL signal for the overalll market with the BUY-IN time at WED's highs. Previous to that I got a CLASS 2 signal which morphed into a CLASS 1. On THUR the DOW was up only slightly forming a small DOJI, which is a common reversal signal but of course needs confirmation. The NAZ did drop about 10 points on THUR. If the DOW is up by more than 75 points intraday, that would be a significant sign that my CLASS SELL signal is failing. It would also imply that the overall market may be on the verge of a technical breakout to the upside, as previously mentioned. In a previous update, I mentioned that per my analysis I got a double top, not based on price action but per my calculations. When that happens it normally indicates that either a mid/longer-term top is developing or that the market is on the verge of a technical breakout. I am more leaning towards the intermediate top, but it would be foolish to ignore the seasonal factors. If the DOW does not pull back (150-250) points this week but remains flat I will suspect that the the market will be basing out for another upswing to new highs, rather than a intermediate top. Unfortunately, there is still significant uncertainty in the direction per my analysis. I took a fairly quick look at the 9 month cycles for the last 30 years going back to 1968, and it appears to be significantly accurate. I have noticed that in a bullish markets the upswing portion of the 9 month cycles lasts about 6-7 months, but in bearish markets the upswings only lasts 2-4 months(or less) from the start of the new 9-month cycle. When I say bearish, it does not necessarily mean a bear market, it could be during a flat range-trading market. What could be concluded from this is that if the DOW/market does not continue strong from here we may be close to the top, which would also imply that the rest of this cycle may be bearish. This current 9 month cycle started around OCT 8, so we are now nearing the end of the 3rd month of this 9-month cycle. If anyone is interested in checking the 9-month cycles, it is quite easy since it always occurs in OCT, JAN, APRIL, JULY. Heres the starting sequence: 10/98 1/98 4/97 7/96 10/95 1/95 4/94 7/94 ETC............. Hey, the last time I did a 30 year study with the NEW HIGH/LOWs calling for a 5% pullback in DEC, worked - so lets see if this one works. I only mention this, not to pat myself on the back, but when I called the 5% pullback in DEC, I received quite a bit of email and PM's and some of them were less than polite, degrading my analysis. Since it did work, I have not heard from them. It does bother me since my analysis is based on statistics, but those who did disagree with me would not specify statistics but only went on their feelings, but how can one argue with feelings. I received a few notes even saying that I was effecting the market which is the most rediculous comment I ever heard. So all I request for those who want to argue with me with emails/PMs to specify statistics/technicals. Seeya