To: HighTech who wrote (34 ) 12/28/1998 12:51:00 PM From: Ben Antanaitis Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 322
HiTech, Starting a chart... The absolute answer is that there is no one 'magic' number to guarantee enough data to get a pattern or even a column started. It will depend on the 'time' (number of trading days) is takes for the stock to move enough to get a 3 box price movement so you can know if it is in a column of X's or O's. Anyone who can precisely tell you how long it will take for an arbitrary stock to move 3 boxes in price is a better person than me ;-)) Remember that p&f is the study of chart patterns. Patterns that, over the history of the technique, have been noted, observed and seen to be repeated over time across the spectrum of issues. This implies a 'history' to base judgements upon. Now, all journeys start with a single step, but a 'good' p&f chart only happens when enough columns are present to discern a known pattern or patterns within the context of trend lines. When you are starting to hand-chart a stock and you are looking at daily data (even my program has to face this), you have no way to determine the initial direction the first column is going to be. So you have to just take a 'post-it' note and write the first days hi and low, adjusted for the box values in the price range you are working in (eg day1 h=27.5 L=25.75, you write h=27 L=26 because each box is $1 and you only count whole number boundary hit/crossing here). Then you either wait until tomorrow or look at the next days values in a price listing. On the second day, you look at it's hi and low. If the high is higher than the low on the post-it by three box values (adjusted by the box value range you are in) you can start your chart by drawing 3 X's. If the low were 3 box values lower than the post-it high, you draw three O's. If neither of these happened, you adjust the hi and low on the post-it. If the low is lower than the post-it low eg 24.875 then change the post-it low to 25 cause it hit/crossed a box value. Similarly, check/update the high. If one or the other price didn't cross/hit a new box boundary, leave that post-it note value alone and wait until the next day to repeat the checking/updating process. Until you see a three box change, then you can draw a column based on the difference between one of the post-it prices and one of the 'new' prices. Now, the hazard in this is the fact that you have joined the game in the middle ie you entered the movie sometime after it began. You don't know if your 3 box change is at the top, the middle, or the bottom of some larger column or pattern. All you know is that the price moved enough for you to tell that your current column is 3 X's or O's. That's why the mantra of P&F is History, History, History. RE: Historic price data On my web site there is a P&F info page. On it are three links to FREE HISTORIC DATA SOURCES where you can download price data for stocks, funds and indexes. This has been long and I hope not too confusing.... Ben A.ez-pnf.com