To: Chuck Molinary who wrote (16406 ) 12/28/1998 2:24:00 PM From: Sonny Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 27307
Short term yhoo dynamics: Can you friends kindly post here 5 +ve and 5 -ve points about the short term stock price dynamics of yhoo (say up to Jan 15, 1999) ? By definition, its always gray; nonetheless, lets have an effort here to speculate a bit, for the short term- for the benefit of long(call) as well as short(put) side players/would-be-players. Let me get started by assuming that someone wants to go long yhoo at this point in time (for put-holders, pro-con points would be reversed): 5 pro points: ------------- 1. Clear sailing till Dec 31, 1998 - dearth of profit takers 2. New pension investment money coming in market after Jan 1st 3. Mania can last for some more time - no shortage of huge sums of money with people who are least interested in short term ... they keep on pouring in, in the 'internuts' ... & will be happy to even just double in 5 years (and simultaneously hoping for a double in the next six months, in the deep inside corner of their mind :-) ) 4. Momentum players will keep on enjoying short-squeezes for a while, who is going to create an artificial line in the sand on Jan 4th for them ? 5. Tails of super-bull-market can be longer than comets ... visibility int. blue-chip status ... blah ... blah. ===== 5 con points: ------------- 1. Watch out for that profit taking avalanche on Jan 4, 1999. 2. Enough is enough for the long momentum players now, let shorties have their day next year ... what goes up, . . . ! 3. Profit taking may ensue even as early as Dec 30th, 1998, expecting the downdraft on Jan 4th! 4. Low barrier to entry business model, insider sells, analysts running out of phrases to pump-up some more, a limit to revenue generation from the clickers ... blah blah ... 5. Sell high ... "one can never go empty by booking profit" instinct of traders will overwhelm l.t. investors in the early part of New Year 1999! ==== Please post your similar pro and con lists here for fun and profit. I do not have any position right now in yhoo. **OT** Meanwhile, have any of you here noticed the unusually high volume up move in NEWZ on Dec 24 (in only half-a-day). Is that the new kid on the internet block next? Any comments? regards to all, -/Sonny.