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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Thomas who wrote (16484)	12/28/1998 7:50:00 PM
From: Roger A. Babb	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Thomas, you are right about the huge gains in most of my 1998 short picks. Only ETEC and VIAS turned out well. The long was not SEBL, I was actually short. The long was BROC, now FSTW. So far it is not looking so great, but hope is on the near horizon. I still believe that the stocks such as YHOO were overvalued a year ago, musch more so today, based on the fundamentals and long term outlook for their business model. But bubbles do happen and we are certainly in one now for the Internets. The stock price of good companies are depressed because money is concentrated in a few high fliers. But bubbles always burst, just at unpredictable times. Unless the Internets crash before January 1, you can expect that I will be shorting them again in 1999 and waiting for the inevitable. I did lose money on YHOO and AMZN this year. My strategy has been to short each time they appear to make a top and then bail if proven wrong. So far I have covered for some small profits and other times larger loses as each dip proved false. Other shorts (such as ZITL and SKYM today) have profited more than enough profit to offset my loses. But you are right, short and hold on the Internets in 1998 would have been a disaster. Long and hold in 1999 may prove even worse. This game can not go on much longer.