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To: BigBull who wrote (33654)	12/28/1998 9:32:00 PM
From: Gary Burton	Respond to of 95453

Big Bull---After looking again at the last wave down which started a little above 16, I need 5 little subwaves to tell me it is complete. Waves 1 and 2 were easy. Wave 3, however is trickier and could have ended where I earlier said 5 ended (ie the recent low). I am now about 50/50 on that at the moment----.My reference to 11.70 was January futures. Feb is a little higher-- If, however, the recent low was 3 ending and not 5, then we are now near the end of 4 and very soon to start the final 5. Either way, if we have yet to see the final low, it will occur in the next several days. ---re timing--elliott theory is weakest here so I have no thoughts on how long it will take to get through 20----re eps bad news, remember the weak hands still have 2 days left for taxes and many don't like to see the gorillas report bad numbers as it tells them that maybe the peewees will be much worse.

To: BigBull who wrote (33654)	12/28/1998 9:56:00 PM
From: Gary Burton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Big Bull--furthur to my note of a few minutes ago. elliott theory says in a 5 wave sequence down,wave 4up can't go inside the bottom of wave 1. That is a cardinal rule. In the case of feb crude the bottom of wave 1 was approx 13.80----next, elliott says as a guideline wave 4 up often retraces between 38%-50% of wave 3 down. In the case of feb crude, wave 3 was approximately 4.3c long and the recent low was approx 10.75. So, if we are to get 1 last wave down to a slight new low, we would currently be in a wave 4 up which should normally end somewhere between 12.39-12.90 to then be followed by the last move down. There is nothing to prevent wave 4 from ending early at under 12. Bottom line, I am currently not 'sure' of the count at the moment. As I said, it is about 50/50 that the low is already in.Only a move to say 14 would invalidate furthur lows at this point.