To: abraves who wrote (16438 ) 12/29/1998 2:50:00 AM From: Reginald Middleton Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 27307
The reason Yahoo is on a runaway freight train is that it has a very thin float. 90% of the shares outstanding are owned by insiders and Softbank, leaving the price very sucseptable to manipulation via day trading and short squeezes. They have a fine operation, but in the long run, valuation ALWAYS wins out. We are in this to make money, and valuation is nothing but counting the money a company can make. The AOL/NSCP combo already has more active registered users, over 100 times more paying users, almost 15 times the revenue, and its own proprietary technologies and content. This means no commoditizing of the content and technology by its competitors. YHOO, Lycos, Seek, XCIT and the crew just can't say that. Microsoft also makes more money than YHOO with its new media ventures (where it owns the content and underlying technology), and it would be more obvious if its reporting was as aggressive as YHOO's. In the end, I see the battle between AOL and MSFT, with YHOO falling by the wayside. Can you guess when the thin float of YHOO finally realizes this (you have less than an 18% chance if you used history as a proxy). I am preparing a full accounting and valuation of YHOO as well as a comp analysis for my site. I feel I am much less biased than Ms. Meeker, so it is quite possible that what I have to say will differ from her perspective. If you read the article that I posted earlier, it teaches a very valuable lesson about following the crowd just because a stock goes up and an analysts says it should. Bill Harmond can attest to what I use to say about NSCP and Morgan Stanley back in '95-'96. Look at NSCP now. PE is not the way to value high growth companies (see the Case Against Earnings rcmfinancial.com , but that is not an excuse to hype a stock. I supplied a lot of evidence against earnings consensus, sell side analysts credibility, and Morgan Stanley in particular in the Lies and Lying article (as sarcastic as it may be) rcmfinancial.com and the aforementioned article. If you disagree with any of what I feel are the more salient points, I am anxious to hear your justification.