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To: Francis R. Biscan Jr. who wrote (25006)	12/28/1998 10:03:00 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116764

Thanks Rich, Nice to know that great minds think alike.... <VBG> The LTCM debacle really sent some central bankers to the executive bathrooms for a diaper change. That was the closest they have yet come to losing control. Brazil may be the next potential system shock, should that IMF funding not prove enough to stem the tide of capital flight. My own personal "extreme" scenario has Brazil going down the tubes due to 2000, since many of their IT systems are very antiquated and not Y2K compliant. Because of Y2K, I find it hard to believe that the IMF was willing to provide the support they have, and I can't imagine more unless the central banks become really desperate. Now that the EMU is 3 days away, Brazil may find it more difficult to find bankers so ready to roll over their loans to them or any other suspect debtor, especially Russia. Also, Europe should find it easier to manage their bad Brazilian debt under the Euro in 1999 and a Brazilian default may have scuttled any plans to unite. IMO, 1999 will prove to be the most important year, of the past 100 or so, in shaping the global economic future. And I don't predict it to end with as much confidence as we beckoned it in with. Take care, Ron