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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mikel who wrote (5328)	12/29/1998 9:00:00 AM
From: Mr.Fun	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 21876

Here is the real problem with a Newbridge take out (as explained to me by a smart sell-sider - there are some). TDM equipment represents better than 40% of Newbridge sales and more than 48% of Newbridge earnings. More thant half of TDM revenue comes through Siemens. A year ago, when NN's Siemens relationship was on the rocks, TDM sales dropped 40% in a single quarter. Today the relationship is strong, and TDM has rebounded. If LU were to buy NN, you can bet that the TDM business would be badly hurt, as LU is no match for Siemens in developing nations and it would take a while for LU to gear up to sell TDM gear anyway. Look at what LU and Ericsson did to Bay after NT bought it. Sales dried up immediately. Terry Matthews wants a premium for NN, and LU cannot justify an adequate premium if the TDM business tanks.