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Technology Stocks : All About Sun Microsystems -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sueponine who wrote (12943)	12/29/1998 12:48:00 PM
From: JDN	Respond to of 64865

Dear suponine: I heard a guest on CNBC (forgot just who) say what you quoted, ie a January correction in the NASDAQ and he went on to say in the range of 10-15% overall. That doesnt make it so. Personally, I can see a correction in almost ANY NET STOCK and a large one too as earnings/losses show just how RIDICULOUSLY overpriced they are. But as to BLUE CHIP TECH stocks, which I consider SUNW to be part of, I am not so sure there will be a correction ESPECIALLY if earnings are as GREAT as we are led to believe. JDN

To: Sueponine who wrote (12943)	12/29/1998 2:28:00 PM
From: Sonki	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 64865

sueponine, i heard lot of people say correction in mid feb. but mid jan sounds right as ernings maybe disappointing. remember the higher PE are ok as long as rate cuts come thru. if we don't see a rate cut and maybe rate incresase we may see sunw come down to 62. and intc come down to 103. etc. just a normal pull back on sunw is at 82.x ask chrisoph he knows better about TA. intc pe = 37 which is the highest ever seen... so watch intc. if intc starts breaking down sunw willll go down.

To: Sueponine who wrote (12943)	12/30/1998 3:41:00 AM
From: nihil	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 64865

RE: Forthcoming Correction The people who arrange these things have not yet settled on a date for the correction. No one wants one now, because no one wants to take profits particularly on the stuff picked up this quarter ST cap gains). It is such an undesired event that you must watch like a hawk. Fortunately, January puts are cheap. Buy a few, you'll sleep better -- its insurance. Think about the taxes you'd have to eat if you sold out or the paper losses if you hung on. No one except the options market makers want a crash in January. Roll your January puts forward if you still want to feel good. Watch the internuts -- this crash, which is coming like a train will start with the most recently discovered idiocies -- stores for God's sake. Amazon is really great, but its priced for about 2010. Where are these people going to make money. Anyone can put up a site (Walmart.com, LibraryofCongress.com). We are going to have to read a hell of a lot of books -- and with the Feely-Smelly's coming who'll have the time? I am enamored of the Four (INTC, MSFT, CSCO, DELL) and have sold most of my trash to raise cash). I am going to buy 2000 and 2001 leaps spreads on all of them with about half my cash, planning to sell spring calls on my stocks. With about 25 % cash, I will wait and see what happens. If the Four horsemen go up, I will curse a little (because the Leaps deltas are small) but will sleep like a baby even if the stocks are called. If the market stumbles (~10%) I will let short calls expire (or by them back if its V shaped) and buy back the short calls in the leaps spreads, and ride the naked leaps calls back up (they must go up!) before selling off the wider upper calls of the broken spreads). If Western Civilization collapes (DOW - 40%), I will reconsider if I want to hold all four, but doubtless will buy them back just like this quarter. Remember, INTC, MSFT were heroic, losing only ~20 per cent, while other good guys (CSCO, DELL) really tanked. Only INTC had a foregiving P/E. It took guts to buy more CSCO ( +100 % since) and DELL and ride them back up. Damned glad I did. You have to play stocks -- not indexes. You have to fight the natural temptation to diversify. It may be the time to rotate out of DELL and CSCO after earnings into INTC and MSFT. Don't take any of this stuff as advice. It worked well last time with no foreknowledge of events. It might work again. Think, plan, prepare. Look up the options symbols you will want to buy. Try buying at the bid and selling at the ask under no urgency, or give them a teeny if you are in a rush. In a downturn when you have cash wait for volatility to settle down a little before buying, or sell (if you can/) when volatility is high.