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To: Robert Douglas who wrote (6530)	12/29/1998 3:25:00 PM
From: William Epstein	Respond to of 7841

Robert Douglas; I fully agree. However, this looks like one of those 10 pt. quick drops that the specialist does, now and again, to me. He cleans out the margin accounts and covers accumulated shorts. It's a good time to do it because everyone is on vacation this week. No one around to notice. I know you've been around, on this BB long enough to have seen it before yourself. It comes at the right time. The end of a powerful 4 month, upward drive from 16 1/8-34 1/2. The end of a quarter and year. Our boy is also getting his ducks in a row for the next earnings report. I seen this before too. Every quarter for the last 9 mos. he drops the stock about 6 weeks before the report and then starts to move up. The shorts have been covered and he is positioned to go long. That's what I would do if I were him. I can't predict what he's going to do but I can say that this seems to be a predictable pattern. You don't have to be a technician to see it, just use careful observation, a good memory and common sense. You will notice that although, the stock moved up today it has not gotten over 30. This downdraft isn't finished. If he follows his past behavior pattern he will start to move it up about mid January. No real surprises here. This was the drop that Kanuri and I were talking about a month ago. We just didn't expect the stock to be driven as high or for as long as it was. One more thing, when the stock peaked it peaked several times above 34. If you look at the 1 yr. chart it shows two major, upward spikes. I call these "the horns of the bull". That is a classic peaking formation. I've talked about it before. Short interest is at the lowest level now, in 3 years. However, there still is a more than 5 million shares outstanding. This short interest is down from 10 million shares in Feb. 97. The specialist seems to be reducing it on the installment plan but we may see it reduced by another million this month, which would be about 20%. He has done it before. As I've said, the TA is not analysis. It is a tool for analysis. Analysis comes from many sources. Mainly, careful observation and a good memory. It's like doing a Chinese puzzle. Don't worry, the lower he goes now and the more shorts cleaned out, the better we will do in February and March. I know, someone is going to whack me in the head for my references to the specialist. PHOTOMAN