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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Burry who wrote (5593)	12/29/1998 4:11:00 PM
From: Wallace Rivers	Respond to of 78717

Mike, As a contrarian who only uses 20 min delays, I wish to congratulate you on the 332 offer I see on AMZN near the close. For 1 afternoon, at least, you are correct!! OOPS!! You're less right, as the offer has moved north of 334! Good luck and happy new year, Wallace

To: Michael Burry who wrote (5593)	12/29/1998 7:02:00 PM
From: Madharry	Respond to of 78717

As you know I love Deswell but its already too much of my portfolio. As for AMZN I thought it a good short at $50, so what do I know?

To: Michael Burry who wrote (5593)	12/29/1998 9:13:00 PM
From: James Clarke	Respond to of 78717

et tu, Micheal? I posted this on another thread before I read that you front-ran me. :) I am going to make a call here in real time that might really embarrass me later, but if I'm right I want it on record. Short a basket of internet stocks tomorrow. Is there a way an individual can take a position short on some sort of internet stock index? I know it is a different kind of risk, and may even be impossible to short some of these stocks individually, so that's why I'm asking the question. Whether I get an answer or not, this is my stand. I have not said this before as I watched these stocks go from the expensive to the ridiculous to the extorionate valuation levels. I am no expert on shorting stocks (so kids, don't play this at home...) What I do know about it is that valuation is not enough. There has to be some notion of timing. So I've been waiting and waiting through the Christmas season, as the stocks doubled again, for one simple news report that would mark the top. That came yesterday when we heard that Christmas internet sales were up 300%. That was precisely the signal I was waiting for and it was very frustrating today not to know an instrument to put the money on the table. Also, for another signal of a top, I might note the fact that the "e-tailing" trend has been a recent cover story on virtually every major business and news magazine. And we all know the valuations. I am not stick in the mud - I am a regular customer of Amazon and AOL, and clearly I know what the internet is if I'm here. But at some point you've just got to say this is insanity. I expect to be ridiculed profusely if I'm wrong on this one. I may not be able put money up on it, but if I can find the right instrument I probably will. Any help? Jim

To: Michael Burry who wrote (5593)	12/29/1998 9:20:00 PM
From: James Clarke	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 78717

I like the "blue blooded contrarian" comment, Mike - shorting Amazon today is an act of principle, comparable to taking to the bayonet when you've ran out of bullets against the heathen infidel. Assuming I am someday going to become a crotchety old value investor telling stories about the 1998 top ( :) ), how could I tell that story without a part about either making a few bucks or losing a few bucks shorting these stocks. Its like when my generation asks our parents "what did you do in the 60s" - you don't want to hear that they watched it all on the news! This is why God created play money. Jim