DStandish, I'll repeat once more, the only trading I am doing is in my SEP account. The government won't let me short, even if I was inclined to do so.
It is tiring to have to explain motives time after time. Here is a list of stock in which I have made efforts over the last two and half years of my presence here on SI to point some of the possible problems, most of them had Foorless involved. I have not made money on the short side on any of them. When I bought or sold positions in these stocks, I informed the respective thread within hours or at least as soon as I was back at my computer.
AKSEF (FL), EXSO (FL), RMIL (scam), NAMX (SCAM), CAFE (FL by the Pres), TTRIF (Leaky FL), RNTK (Leaky FL), ABACF (bad business problems), TRKN (bad acquisition), ECOGF (FL), CHTL (FL), DBDY (SCAM?), HEC (complex FL, and have informed the thread of my buying intention sometimes in the next 10 days, when part of the floorless problem will disappear), CTYS (FL), IPMCF (SCAM?), GPGI (bad management, possibly a major problem?), XSYS (Very bad balance sheet and no business), GATE (FL), AIPN (FL), IELSF (FL).
Look at the charts of these companies and you will see why countless of people have PM'd me for saving their buts in those cases when I said it is absolutely hopeless (from these, the following 55% are essentially "history", namely the current value is 1% or less of the value when I was first denounced as a short, a shill, or having an agenda: TRKN, CHTL, CTYS, CAFE, IPMCF, TTRIF, IELSF, RMIL, NAMX, DBDY, EXSO and many of the others are 1/3 to 1/10 of their value at the same time (GPGI, RNTK, XSYS, AIPN, GATE, ECOGF, HEC, ABACF).
What is your record?
Thus, instead of finding agendas, lets address issues, simple issues, no one is willing to argue simple numbers. FMK is claiming that each line will produce 8000 laptop batteries per day, 300 days per year, and he assumes at least two such lines to be operational next year, that comes to 4.8 MM batteries, but next year, the whole laptop market will luckily reach 17 MM units, do you really think that VLNC will capture in their first year of operation 28.2 of the market (actually, 37% plus, since we all agree that major shipment will not occur during the first quarter). Why are you not asking FMK for his agenda in trying to pull over our eyes a veil of misinformation? Wake up, you are a lawyer, you know how to read legal documents. What do the 8-k and the S-3 tell you as a lawyer? A very simple truth comes through, a company with its back to the wall is making an heroic effort to survive, and survival could and sometimes should come on the back of the early investors (through dilution).
The burn rate of VLNC (until now) is clearly $6 MM/quarter, with all the additional personnel, it might be much higher, the company is in definite danger of running out of money before it can start shipping, and the next financing has a better then 50% chance of coming with greater penalty to current holders then the CC one. This is a fact, which a good lawyer, which I am sure you are, can definitely discern from these documents.
If VLNC gets to mass production before it runs out of money, most probably, all past "sins" will be forgotten and forgiven (since IDB will provide a good chunk of required working capital), but if they run out of cash before that momentous effect, expect deep dilution. Situations like these are very dangerous financially to investors, and that is why, in the event that they succeed, the reward will be great, but if they do not succeed, a financial disaster as was the case in many of the companies I cited above, is a definite reality. Companies in such straight do offer an unusual opportunity for big gains when on the cusp between success and disaster, but that is exactly why it is extremely important to find the facts and assess seriously their chance of success or ending on the heap. You can help us by stopping these personal characterizations and addressing the real issues.
Have a happy new year.
Zeev |
