To: CHRISTINE who wrote (4154 ) 1/19/1999 12:52:00 PM From: CHRISTINE Respond to of 4276
The INVESTools Advisory, January 11-15, 1999 1. Profiting from an Upcoming US Energy Shortage (TPL)Friday, January 15, 1999 Frank Curzio says the US is heading for an oil and natural gas shortage. He points out that today's low oil prices are forcing companies to plug 2,000 oil stripper wells each week. Oil stripper wells (which produce 10 barrels per day or less) account for 70% of all US wells. Curzio says that since it costs $2 to $4 million to drill a new well, energy companies can not justify drilling new stripper wells at current oil prices. Also, stripper wells produce roughly 1.4 million barrels daily, which is also the amount that the US imports daily from Saudi Arabia. "Since the US imports over 50% of its oil from outside its borders, loss of the stripper wells will increase our imports and energy dependence from one of the most unstable regions in the world," Curzio says. The only way oil companies could justify redrilling stripper wells would be if oil and gas prices rose significantly, Curzio says. He assumes Asian economies will turn around in nine to 12 months and the US economy will continue to advance, and predicts that today's dead stop in both on- and offshore drilling will result in a dramatic shortfall of oil and gas this fall. To capitalize, Curzio recommends four special situations selling at significant discounts to net asset value. Topping the list is Texas Pacific Land Trust (TPL), one of the longest-listed stocks on the NYSE. TPL has been earning a 0.0078% royalty on over 85,000 acres of land that has long been drilled for oil. But Curzio is excited about more than 380,000 acres of other land on which TPL owns a higher 6.25% royalty. Rising oil and gas prices will behoove companies to drill on this higher-royalty land, and Curzio predicts 12,000 wells on this land in three-to-five years. "For patient investors, a small holding in TPL's shares could result in an imponderable accrual of tremendous wealth," Curzio says.