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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: FMK who wrote (6399)12/29/1998 7:26:00 PM
From: Mark Johnson  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 27311
 
Zeev, Larry, visnic all seem to have individual agendas of doing their collective best to skew information in a negative light to discredit the efforts of Valence. It is obvious that share price projections have been wrong and to continually focus on what Wolanchuck or other posters have guessed at is ridiculous in the extreme.

When Valence announces a contract they will have much more production capability than any competitors thus far revealed. That's enough for me to stay interested for the moment.

Happy New Year!



To: FMK who wrote (6399)12/29/1998 8:38:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 27311
 
Once again, I apologize if I misread your posts (by the way, I do not not catalogue your posts, I remembered the 8000 number and simply did a search on 8000 in the VLNC thread), but in recent days you have that argument with Larry whether the S-3 speaks of the first or third line, when taken together with the 8000 (which after six posts sunk in my mind as the number you promote), I felt that your view of the situation is line 1-laptops, line 2 cell phones and line 3 lap tops (in conjunction with an earlier post when you foresaw an additional line with more then twice the capacity of the first one), thus, my thinking that you were a little over optimistic and maybe these numbers should be compared to what the market can bear.

Is your current estimate that line 1 by itself would be operational at the rate of 2.5 million units or 3 Millions? I think that both cases are still quite high. If we indeed assume that VLNC will be a major player in the polymer based lithium sE storage systems, then a good (actually, IMHO, excellent) performance should be for them to capture 20% of that market in three years. By then there could be 22 MM (maybe 25?) laptop shipped yearly, but I doubt that more then 50% will sport a high price high energy density ESS. Thus taking the 25 MM, I believe that numbers much above 2.5 MM ESS per year (and not 1999, since we probably are not going to have, at best just 9 months of line operation) would be setting too high an expectation. Stock often react to meeting or missing expectation, and setting too high a goal will be detrimental to the performance of the stock. One is much better off setting up goals which are "beatable" with one hand tied behind their back.

Zeev