Ravel,
Further mainstream reports (ABC News) of Y2K extending post January 01, 2000...
(Note: TAVA is NOT mentioned.)
FWIW, I would rather NOT see any TAVA news until after the New Year.
<From: abcnews.go.com >
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Business News Summary
T U E S D A Y | December 29, 1998
The Beginning of the Bug
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Only a fraction of the predicted Y2K computational meltdown will happen on Jan. 1, 2000. The rest will be spread out over a few years and the fun will begin in 1999. Happy New Year.
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Y2K, Today <Picture: Are we ready for Y2K>
Facing the Millennium Bug
Expect the year 2000 computer bug to start biting in 1999 and keep chomping for the next few years. (A.Shepherd/ABCNEWS.com)
By Katherine Hobson
ABCNEWS.com from TheStreet.com
The millennium bug won't just hit on Jan. 1, 2000; its effects will be spread out over three years.
If you plan to stay up on New Year's Eve 1999 in the hope that you'll witness massive chaos at 12:01, don't waste your time. Just 8 percent of system failures will occur during the actual rollover; the remaining 92 percent will be spread out over 1999, 2000 and 2001, says Lou Marcoccio, year 2000 research director at GartnerGroup.
With that in mind, here are a few dates to look out for:
Jan. 1, 1999
The euro is introduced. Though this isn't directly related to the millennium bug, it is also expected to wreak havoc on computers—software applications will require a massive revamp. Capers Jones, chief scientist at Artemis Management, which builds and sells project management tools, calls the timing "one of the worst public policy decisions in human history because it pits the world's second-largest software project (the euro) against the world's largest software project (the year 2000 conversion)." He says there aren't enough software personnel to accomplish both tasks.
First Working Day of 1999
Software applications that make projections may have problems on this day or Jan. 1. Systems making two-year projections have already experienced problems this year: There were 12 times as many failures during 1998 as in 1997, says Marcoccio. There will be scattered system failures throughout 1999 as companies and governments begin fiscal 2000.
Feb. 5, 1999
The airline industry makes reservations 330 days in advance, so systems must be ready on this day. "My view is the industry is pretty well prepared," says Tom Browne, executive director of the Y2K program for the Air Transport Association of America, which represents the U.S. airline industry. "The standards for changing ticketing systems have been in place for two years, and some central reservation systems are telling airlines they're already ready."
There will be scattered system failures throughout 1999 as companies and governments begin fiscal 2000.
March 1999
President Clinton has said federal agencies should be Y2K compliant by this month. Rep. Stephen Horn, R-Calif., recently estimated one-third of crucial systems won't be ready, though the chairman of the President's Council on Year 2000 Conversion, John Koskinen, disputed this assessment. April 1, 1999 New York state and Canada begin fiscal 2000.
April 6, 1999
The U.K. begins fiscal 2000. Margaret Beckett, leader of the House of Commons, recently estimated that 40 percent of departments and agencies are almost finished with their compliance work. Total cost to the U.K. government, including the National Health Service: more than 700 million pounds. Jones of Artemis says the U.K. and U.S. are among the nations most prepared for 2000.
July 1, 1999
Forty-six U.S. states begin fiscal 2000.
Sept. 9, 1999
Many software programs use the sequence 9999 as a termination code. The date 9/9/99 might signal such a termination. Exact stop codes are "at the whim of the individual programmer," says Jones. A handful of other dates that involve some permutation of 9999 pose potential problems.
Oct. 1, 1999
The U.S. government begins fiscal 2000. While 25 percent of government systems won't be tested and ready by this date, estimates Marcoccio, only 5 percent to 8 percent of the mission-critical agencies (think Federal Aviation Administration) won't be prepared. Jan. 1, 2000
The rubber hits the road.
GartnerGroup estimates that Y2K-related information-technology costs worldwide will range from $300 billion to $600 billion, with the U.S. accounting for $150 billion to $225 billion. "I think we're way too panic-stricken here in the U.S.," says Marcoccio. "People should not be hoarding money, stocking up on food or buying generators. It's totally silly." Some 30 other countries, however, will experience problems, including power and telecommunications systems failures.
Jan. 4, 2000
The first business day of 2000. Three-quarters of U.S. businesses and government agencies will have problems, estimates Jones. Marcoccio says 15 percent of all U.S. companies and government agencies will have at least one mission-critical system failure. Worldwide, 30 percent to 50 percent of systems will experience at least one mission-critical failure.
Feb. 29, 2000
Leap year day.
The year 2000 is a leap year based on a little-known rule that years divisible by 400 are leap years. (There's no leap year at the end of a century except when the year evenly divisible by 100 is also evenly divisible by 400: 1900, for example, was not a leap year, nor were 1800 or 1700. But 1600 was.) It's so rare that many software applications may not include it, raising the potential for system failures.
April 3, 2000
Japan begins fiscal 2000. Like it doesn't have enough problems already.
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Copyright 1998 ABCNEWS.com from TheStreet.com. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
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--Dennis |
