To: Steven Rachbach who wrote (243 ) 1/6/1999 5:12:00 PM From: Steven Rachbach Read Replies (1) | Respond to
The following should be accomplished by Humane Genome Science in 1999:
-- Continuation of the Phase II trial of MPIF-1 which began in November, 1998. MPIF is the drug that shields the cells that give rise to mature blood cells from the harmful effects of chemotherapy agents. This would provide more safety and allow for higher doses of chemotherapy in the treatment of cancer. The Phase II trial is expected to last 12 to 18 months according to a company spokesperson.
-- Initiation of Phase II trial for KEGF-2 which has shown promise in wound healing and other epithelial cell diseases.
-- Continuation of testing of VEGF-2 which is one of several "angiogenesis" drugs being investigated. VEGF-2 spurs the production of new blood and lymphatic vessels. At first, this drug will be tested for peripheral vascular disease, such as a vessel blockage in the lower extremity. Several injections are made into the area of the blockage. The drug is delivered as "naked plasmid DNA" rather than with a viral vector that has provoked severe immune reactions in previous testing. If the drug works well for peripheral vascular disease, it is hoped that it may eventually be used in the heart for the treatment of coronary artery disease.
-- HGS's own manufacturing and process development plant is due to be completed within the next several months.
-- HGS expects to advance 2 more drugs into clinical testing in 1999 with an additional drug to begin testing in a joint venture.
-- HGS now has identified over 2,500 genes and proteins many of which are already patented or have pending patent applications.
My analysis (for what it's worth):
It is very appropriate that the report of the results for HGS's first Phase II trial probably won't occur until 2000. What better way to ring in the millennium than to successfully complete the first Phase II trial of a drug produced in this manner. Genomically-derived drugs will ultimately become a viable and dominant force in the pharmaceutical industry. One stock pundit, Don Hays of Wheat First Union, has picked HGSI as one of his top stock picks of 1999. I'm not so sure about 1999- it may be a time to load up during dips like the one in October, 1998. I believe the fuse will be lit on the stock price upon successful completion of a Phase II trial, probably in the first half of next year. Once investors understand the potential of genomic drugs and that HGS may have hundreds of drugs for development, then the stock price will rapidly appreciate. Using substances the body normally produces to develop and heal itself will be an irresistible concept to many. With 2,500+ genes and proteins under patent, HGS will keep the pipeline bulging for many years. Surely, valuable drugs will be developed by HGS. In addition, HGS's joint ventures and its patents on the staph and enterococcus bacteria will enable it to share in the proceeds of many additional drugs and vaccines.
In sum, the future for HGS looks better than ever but significant share price appreciation may not happen until next year.
Regards,
Steve Rachbach
