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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: johnd who wrote (13634)	12/30/1998 1:51:00 PM
From: LindyBill	Respond to of 74651

About 2 weeks ago I predicted that the internet stocks will start going down by first week of January. Hey, johnd, glad you have had a good year, if you have made 250% going in and out, you are a better man than I am! When someone claims to have made good on a prediction, and doesn't list his post #, I get curious, and go back and check. Your December posts have a lot of predictions in them, so many I could not figure out if you had made the above prediction or not. Good luck next year! LindyBill

To: johnd who wrote (13634)	12/30/1998 4:21:00 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74651

Longer term investors will be happier to see MSFT go down to around 120 - 130 in Jan so that MSFT starts stock buybacks and put warrant sales, currently it is not able to due rich valuations. JohnD, This quarter there is a lot of upbeat earnings reports and preannouncements (Intel/Oracle/MSFT). Last year techs were very negative about the future and that is why it will be different this time. Although you present a logical argument, I don't see a return to 120s or 130s. The markets won't "allow" it. Instead, I see 150 and 160 by earnings. You have to just notice that Office 2000 and NT 5.0 are on the way this year. It makes sense for mutual funds to buy the stock before the actual product releases. Short term, I am seeing a "short" squeeze just before earnings as momentum investors pile in to the stock. MSFT has gone up due to the good news associated DOJ case. It has not caught up with the market yet. BTW Congratulations on your returns this year and good luck for next year.

To: johnd who wrote (13634)	12/30/1998 6:29:00 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

MSFT stopped buying back their shares a quarters ago. I guess their "experts" thought they were too expensive. They could have repurchased a lot of shares at prices 1/2 of what it would cost now. I noticed they started again for at least the last 2 quarters. Why? Are they cheaper now? They just got smarter and realized that they have no expertise in this area or hired smarter people. It is better to buy back every quarter - sort of like dollar cost averaging. It just took them a lot of time to realize this. I would be shocked if they did not repurchase about the same number of shares as last quarter. I am now sticking with my predictions of at least 150 by earnings (I know it changes a bit from time to time). Their earnings went up from 36 to 56 cents Sept 97 to Sept 98 quarters. My gut feelings have paid off big this year ( 50 times return on investment - with options and stock). I usually choose between Dell/Intc/MSFT. At this point MSFT appears to be the best options bet to me, IMHO.

To: johnd who wrote (13634)	12/30/1998 7:07:00 PM
From: Catcher	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

what happens if/whenever the internet stocks bust do tech stocks like msft and intc go down sharply or does money that WAS in internet stocks go to msft and intc...thus pushing them up? Concept is that diehard net players won't stray too far from strictly net stocks into, eg. cash or clorox. Does behavior along these lines differ for institutional net invstrs vs individual invstrs and if so which group owns which % of net stocks. Happen to agree with poster who thinks net stocks fall in jan, just not convinced that blue chip techs fall with them

To: johnd who wrote (13634)	12/31/1998 1:18:00 AM
From: ed	Respond to of 74651

John, Tomorrow , you will say your guess is wrong when the Internet stock back up another 10%. By looking at the chart, Microsoft is set up for a big run up, and it may happen tomorrow or early next week. As to PE of 50, you may never see it again for a long long time. There are just too much money in the market , and new money coming everyday from all over the world to the US stock market, it is money which push the market higher and higher. So , your traditional way of judging the market should be changed. Based on your philosophy, AOL should never be $140, Yahoo should never be $300, but the fact prove that you are dead wrong. Microsoft run up to 119, then back to 15, and then shoot up to 130 , and consolidated under 130, and then shoot up to 144, and now consolidated between $138 to $144. The next shoot up will hit $160 . Who tell you that Microsoft's PE should not be over 72 ? We can always rewrite the history as the market sentiment is changing. Pretty soon you will say , well, PE of 100 is really low. Too much money in the market, so the reasonable PE should be changed accordingly. Buy back your stock tomorrow at the open, or you will miss the next big run up !!!!