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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J. P. who wrote (13638)	12/30/1998 6:15:00 PM
From: t2	Respond to of 74651

JP, I did get into Feb 150s and April 150s today. Unloaded a lot of the Jan 120s and April 130s. I think this will an earning driven January rally --- watch for the good news to start in the first week of January. Some of the selling this week may be worry over the Senate trial -- it will be short lived. MSFT, Intel, IBM, Compaq, Dell, HP, Cisco and some others are dominant players on a WORLDWIDE basis. What do think caused these companies to all of a sudden be upbeat? a) is it that Asia is getting better b) is it that Europe is doing well c) is it that the rest of the emerging markets are doing well d) it the the fact that the US dollar has dropped in value against the major currencies. My opinion is that (d) is the answer. USA high tech imports in these countries are not as expensive as they were a few months ago. These companies had planned their pricing in local currencies based upon a very strong dollar. What happens when it de-values - like has versus the Yen from 140 to 115. Is MSFT or Intel going to jump the gun and start reducing prices in Japan (which are in yen). I don't think so!! That is a lot of extra revenue! BTW, if Asia does start rolling, especially Japan -- lookout!! They will still buy MSFT/INTEL/CISCO products -- and from U.S. PC companies. The only news from Asia that is factored in is the bad news. The de-valuation of the dollar has given people in Asia more confidence in their currencies -- which in turn would increase spending (on computers?).

To: J. P. who wrote (13638)	12/31/1998 3:09:00 PM
From: t2	Respond to of 74651

I'm thinking about shorting some semiconductor stocks like JBL or TXN in late January because these seem like likely candidates to lead a fall in the event of a tech wreck. J.P., I am afraid to short any techs at this point. It all depends on how high the semiconductor stocks go - I may wait for an opportunity in late January if one arises. I personally don't like the near term for Compaq(I hope they don't disappoint in earnings). However, I am unwilling to short it. All you need is some sort of internet announcement or deal and the stock will fly no matter what the earnings. I had thoughts of shorting Oracle in the past -- glad i did not. I did buy MSFT - Jan 140s, Jan 150s, and FEb 150s. I need a drop to about 138 1/4 if I am to get a fill on the Jan 145s. Just too bullish going into earnings season. I think this EURO thing is going to drive American and European markets -- especially techs. Happy New Year!!!