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Technology Stocks : Hyperion Solutions (HYSL) - An Analytical Gorilla? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Trader Dave who wrote (302)	12/30/1998 6:31:00 PM
From: Albert Youssef	Respond to of 471

To justify this kind of price, I'd expect to see an estimate meltdown and not just some risk to estimates. It's not as if this stock has been a high flyer that's been in favor! A software company with a P/E of 10 is being priced with the expectations that only bleak days lie ahead for the company (i.e. - no growth in revenues/earnings, complete lack of visibility, market saturation in the company's primary product, crippling competiton, etc...), and nothing I've read would indicate this anywhere near the degree that the stock price indicates. I have a question: you mention that it's getting CHEAP, but you weren't sure if it was "inexpensive". Is this based on the general bad feeling that all of us investors currently harbor towards the stock? Or has there been a very fundamental change in your view of the company over the last several months? I know that you've been more cautious of late, but I don't remember where you turned bearish on the company's outlook. Unless I'm misreading your posts. My entry into this really came as a result of an ill-timed purchase of Arbor, a couple of weeks before the merger was announced (I know... OUCH). I haven't sold because despite all the FUD, there hadn't seemed to be a corresponding decline in the company's mid-to-long term fundamental outlook, as I see it. On the other hand, I haven't averaged down either because it doesn't take a genius to see that someone who probably has more info than me seriously dislikes the company. And that makes me nervous. Anyway, in the meantime, maybe we should change the name of this thread to "Hyperion Solutions (HYSL) - An Analytical Dog!". Thanks in advance for your response; I do enjoy reading your insights. - Al Youssef

To: Trader Dave who wrote (302)	12/30/1998 7:11:00 PM
From: Ed Frye	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 471

>>I heard a brokerage was out with a call that estimates are at risk. my sense is that the old Hyperion side of the business is at risk for the quarter on a license basis. From a DEC 9 Business Wire story.... ''The stock is down because of concerns about the quarter, particularly the flow of business on the applications side,'' said Gary Abbott, an analyst at Punk Ziegel & Co., who rates the stock ''aggressive buy.'' Abbott said the drop in the shares is an overreaction to unfounded worries about the company's quarter. >>It will be interesting to see how the presentation goes at the Morgan Conference next week. I think they present on thursday, that somewhat obligates the company to put out a press release if there is a problem by then. If earnings are OK, there will be no warning, regardless of License revenues, correct? Earnings are out (1/20)..... Today looks like a bottom to me. ed