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To: James Clarke who wrote (877)	12/30/1998 8:07:00 PM
From: Shane M	Respond to of 4691

Jim, I just didn't understand AOL either. I thought the ISP business was going to be commoditized, but apparently that is not going to be the case. I really still don't understand why commoditization didn't happen. To me ease of use was the _only_ attractive feature AOL had going for it (some people like the chat rooms too I guess), but I thought that given a little time competitors would make the configuration process easier. It just hasn't happened. Nearly everyone who's wanting to get on the internet (but hasn't yet) thinks "AOL" first when they think of a provider. In contrast I don't even know if my provider is in the phonebook and wonder how they get customers! Good luck with your short on Amazon. It is a terrible company, but to date the shorts have been skinned alive on this one. EBAY is also worth a look for a put IMO. The flea market with the $10billion mkt cap. Geez. Shane

To: James Clarke who wrote (877)	12/30/1998 9:33:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4691

Try taking a look at BKS. This company is the franchise in bookstores. They are earning money(!) and growing rapidly. The only negative is valuation, but the addition of Ingram (a wholesaler/distributor) makes this a pretty compelling story. The existence of physical locations together with an internet presence makes sense to me for a bookseller. And they will be adding CDs and videos to their offerings. You can check out their website at barnesnadnoble.com. I think that AOL will be the best of the breed in the portals, and the combination with Netscape makes a lot of sense. It makes them a serious competitor for MSFT. There is no way I'd short one of these internuts. The valuations attached to AMZN is absolutely insane. There doesn't seem to be a positive gross margin, so I don't understand why the price is bid up so high. The best plays might be the equipment manufacturers, but again, the valuations are probably too high (with the possible exception of NETA). TTFN, CTC

To: James Clarke who wrote (877)	12/30/1998 11:01:00 PM
From: Robert Douglas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4691

Jim, In your analysis of AOL have you ever resolved the issue of cable Internet connections? It seems like this is a wave that is destined to sweep the Internet. Everyone that I know who has one is glowing in their recommendations. I await anxiously for service to become available in my area. Then it's goodbye to AOL and hello to continuous access at 100 times the speed. Is there any way, short of government mandate, that AOL will be able to offer cable hookups? The threat looms large in the near future. -Robert

To: James Clarke who wrote (877)	1/1/1999 1:21:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4691

James, I think that many of the e-commerce stocks are examples of the greater fool theory in action. AMZN is probably the most outrageous example. The problem that I see is that if you short this one you could easily get run over. How long until investors recognize that the emperor has no clothes? In the interim, getting margin calls on this company certainly does not appeal to me. BKS is much like a jewelry store. It is a highly seasonal business. I think that the addition of Ingram makes it particularly attractive because it can now profit from its competition (AMZN and others use Ingram as their suppliers). What is really odd, and underscores the relative valuation issue, is that BKS has positive cash flow, and is growing at a healthy clip (earnings growth is greater than 25% as I recall), sells roughly 10 times the volume that AMZN does, but has only 10% of the market capitalization of AMZN. I have yet to see any cash flow projections that justify any market capitalization for AMZN. It looks like a replay of BOST to me. BTW, looks like one of my growth stocks, ATI, will be bought out by BEL at around a 10% premium over current market prices. TTFN, CTC