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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Frank Ellis Morris who wrote (13355)	12/30/1998 8:32:00 PM
From: BomboochaBoy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13594

>> Please explain what is going to happen for investors to ignore these pesty analyst who are trying to throw cold water on our enthusiasm?? << Heck, Frank, little ol' me can't explain much. yes, aol has factors a, b and c, all the way to x, y and z going for it. but a mania is a mania...how does it affect the i-net king when it ends/slows? i do not know. i just know that i've polled 14 aol threaders and they have an average of 192 by 1/31/99 and 394 by 1/1/00. this is far above my prognostication of 155 and 320. the worst place to be is not daytrading or long term, but probably short term. that is, with the exception of an outstanding market timer. until aol's subscriber growth slows, and all things being equal (mergers, partnerships, etc.), long-termers shouldn't fret. now, about your predictions, frank... frank? with many grains of salt paul

To: Frank Ellis Morris who wrote (13355)	12/30/1998 8:46:00 PM
From: Labrador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13594

Earnings -- Can we assume? Added 1 million more subscribers, and at $22 per month equals $22 million per month or about $260 per annum. This is just for the latest 1 million subscribers. Can we assume that there are no fixed costs associated with this latest addition, and that the $260 drops to the bottom line (pre-tax earnings)? If so, just the latest million subscribers adds about 31 cents to annum earnings, and about 8 cents per quarter. If they can add, 1 million subscribers every 60 days, they will be doing tremendous. Then wait for the price to increase from $21.95 to say $22.95. Yee-hah. 1 million subscribers @ $263.40 per year/465 million shares outstanding x 60% after-tax rate = 34 cents. so say 31 cents.