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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Karin who wrote (1123)12/31/1998 12:36:00 AM
From: N  Respond to of 3536
 
If EMU prompts a speedier than expected shift from the US dollar to the euro there could be a sell-off in US bonds that would spark such a regime, but Wall Street experts are sanguine, even though simulations carried out by the IMF show that an optimal portfolio for central bank foreign exchange reserves on a risk/return basis has an almost equal amount of euros and US dollars.

Herding out of a market as liquid as the US bond market? Such a precipitous turn not likely but over time*...but it would be interesting to know now what percentages of central banks foreign reserves are dollars, marks, yen, sterling....

Interesting article.

Nancy

*When asked what was the impact of the French revolution on 20 th century financial markets, the empiricist sighed, 'alas, it's too soon to tell....'




To: Karin who wrote (1123)12/31/1998 5:50:00 AM
From: Frodo Baxter  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3536
 
>Euroland is home to 290 million people (the US population is 267 million), accounts for 19.4 per cent of the world's gross domestic product compared with the US's 19.6 per cent, and provides an 18.6 per cent share of world trade compared with the US's 16.6 per cent.

This can't be right. This would imply that per capita GDP in Euroland is approx the same as the U.S. They aren't even in our league. (actually, no one is) Anybody got the real statistics handy?



To: Karin who wrote (1123)12/31/1998 1:22:00 PM
From: Jim Court  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3536
 
Karin,

I read an article last weekend that noted that the real test of the EMU will be the first major economic downturn in any of the member countries.

Previously, the individual countries could help to solve the problem in the monetary policy area, but now the Central Bank maintains this control. With the history of intense nationalism in Europe, the Central Bank could have its hands full.

Should be interesting.

Happy New Year to all.

Jim