To: Mike Klobouk who wrote (3581 ) 12/31/1998 9:57:00 AM From: Sid Turtlman Respond to of 5827
Mike: True, the Daimler part of DCX was never optimistic about gasoline reformers, but the Chrysler part was, and that project has gotten the ax. That is bad news because, should someone figure out how to do a commercially acceptable gasoline reformer, the methanol infrastructure problem wouldn't exist. Introduction of methanol tanks and dispensing equipment is not a trivial item, as you suggest. I recommend you read the American Methanol Institute study, most recently cited by Hawkeye, and read the numbers. I have a little trouble believing that that organization is intentionally overstating the expense. In fact, all it talks about is the initial capital expense, and does not include very real expense of interest on the capital investment and lost opportunity of having a tank full of methanol for which there will be virtually no customers until fc cars are sold in quantity. There is your fundamental chicken-and-egg problem: people won't buy the cars unless refueling opportunities are widespread, and gas stations won't invest the money in methanol until they see enough customers around to justify the investment and expense. Chicken-and-egg problems are solvable; all it takes is someone willing to front the, in this case, billions of dollars needed to solve the infrastructure problem, and then maybe people will buy the cars - if, that is, they represent a good value to the customer. That is a big gamble, since hybrids are already better in performance (especially fuel expense) than the hypothetical fc car, and hybrids will be a lot better in 2004. The fact that Daimler is readying its own hybrid to sell before then tells me that, it won't see any good reason to take that gamble. Like I said, watch for the first fc car introduction postponement trial balloons being floated during 1999, and confirmed at next year's winter auto shows, where hybrids will be the rage.