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Technology Stocks : 3DFX -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: joel3 who wrote (9950)	12/31/1998 4:02:00 PM
From: Patrick Grinsell	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 16960

Joel, thanks for the nice comments... as to some answers (guesses?) for your questions, here goes: When will it be clear that the merger has been a success? We should get a real good hold on the dynamics of the combined company after second quarter 1999. They will have just been through a product launch and we'll be able to better judge demand for Voodoo3 and 3dfx's ability to meet that demand. When will it be clear that 3DFX has a successful long-term future? Only solid OEM deals will guarantee a minimum revenue level. The retail products will vary wildly depending on market acceptance. Does it appear that we will have to wait over 6 months before we can answer these questions? The OEM question could be met sooner, but I think the majority of the deals will hinge on Voodoo3. So yes, it's probably at least 6 months out. Shipments of Voodoo3 in volume during 1Q is probably already factored into the stock, although it will still be a good sign. Actually, I don't think Voodoo3 for Q1 is being taken into account at all. 3dfx has said Q2 and most analysts are sticking to that information. Consequently, do we expect the market perception will not be rewarding until good numbers are delivered at the end of 2Q and there is a positive response to the announcement of Rampage. Yes. You've pretty much hit the nail on the head. 3dfx stock usually trades well ahead of the news though, and expecting any rational result from the stock price in the short term may be dissapointing. Also, there are other products in the works that may throw a kink in our attempts to use a crystal ball. Bottom Line: Trading vehicle no, long term investment yes Do we expect a few major OEM announcements with 3DFX chip sets to greatly improve market perception? When should this occur? 3dfx has other OEMs that have been won but not announced. Time frame? No idea. I am concerned about weathering out the storm during the introduction of competiting chipsets, as well as, the constant ribbing by our former partners. There will always be competing chipsets. V1 and Riva128, V2 and TNT, and now V3 and ATI 128. The ribbing from the former partners will die down. It's all PR crap and the media loves it. The Creative people bought a million shares of 3dfx because they said 3dfx's future products look great. After the STB news they said nVidia has a better roadmap and Voodoo3 sucks. Did Creative slap down anywhere near the amount of money on nVidia as they did 3dfx? Nope. Actions speak louder than words. Pat