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To: accountclosed who wrote (14286)	12/31/1998 12:26:00 PM
From: Cynic 2005	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 86076

I took trading positions (for January pop) in BA, TWA, PAASF, NEM, DBRSY, WYG, GND and hedged them with some KO, Dell and CSCO puts. ----------------- Mohan's List for Jan pop! Remember the following before you act on these picks. 1. It is your money and you have to do your DD. Check them out before you buy. 2. Remember, these are short-term (for 2-3 weeks in to January) ideas only. If they go up 10-20%, I will be out! 2. Do not blame me if you can't make money out of any one of them. I think it is better to buy a basket of 5 or more with a hedge. 3. As of 8:30 AM on Nov 30, 1998 (the time of this note being prepared) I have no position in either one of the picks in the list. My market view and strategy: I do believe that for at least the first three sessions in the new year there will be a violent rally in the market indices. The large cap stocks that saw a tremendous rally in 1998, the Microsofts, ciscos, Dells, AOl will suffer in the first week. [several people I talked to informally are very eager to sell at the beginning of the year.] The underlying theme of this rally will be (a) new year and the hype that there is a large pool of money on the sidelines looking for "home" (I get tired of this BS by WS); (b) impeachment hearings? what impeachment?; and (c) Euro is bad for the buck? Oh goody! They are too pessimistic and let us run the indices. -g- Towards the middle of January, the following will be realized: 1. Tough to hype the poor earnings, even if they beat the reduced estimates. 2. Wild card - Brazil! 3. Buck weakens 4. Japan may falter on stronger yen (happening now) 5. Perhaps Clinton will not have an easy going at the senate hearings. All told, by end of January we may see a violent sell-off in the indices. On a relative basis, RUT and midcaps indices might do OK. There are still a lot of beaten down brand-names in the small-cap and mid-cap area. I think they will outperform the large and mega caps. There is a very good chance that they will sell mega caps to buy these beaten down stocks. At least for early in January, things look good for the ones in my list. I think it is better to get in to them by the end of this year. Casinos/Hotels: Grand Cainos - GND (~9) P/B 0.6; P/S 0.55; Down over 50% for the year; Will likely have poor earnings but I think it is discounted in the price. Circus Circus - CIR (~11.5) P/B 0.9; P/S 0.55; Down over 50% for the year; Will likely have poor earnings but I think it is discounted in the price. Hilton Hotels - HLT (~20) P/B 1.5; PS: 0.55; Down ~50% for the year Problems with casinos - over capacity is killing the industry. But it should still be good for a pop in 1998. (HLT is acquiring GND. So playing GND is like playing HLT.) Food: Dole Foods (~29): P/B 2.3; P/S 0.55; near 52 week low. Down over 50% for 1998. Hurrican Mitch devastated their investments. European Commission is playing hardball with them by favoring the local food suppliers. May be (just may be) all negatives are factored in. Boeing. No need to explain. Buy 2000 LEAPS at $25 or 30 strike. Wymon Gordon (~10) - Boeing supplier. P/B 1.7; P/S 0.45; Good franchise. Near 52 week low. TWA (~5) Possible belly-up and/or acquisition target. But risk/reward is favorable. Metals: For whatever reason, they act well in January. PAASF (Fleck's Lead), DBRSY (Mike's Lead), PDG and NEM (My Own) If you want to nibble some techs: BAANF, WFR, APM, CIEN, GEMS: My favorite is WFR. [remember to get out if you are up about 20% or down about 10%, whichever comes first.] I will hedge these with some Feb OTM puts on KO, IBM, Cisco and DELL. AOL puts are very expensive. My Mix for 10k investment: 2k in PAASF; 2k in TWA; 2k in BA LEAPS; 2k in GND; $660 Cisco puts; $660 in Dell puts; 660 in KO puts; My Ideal mix for 50k investment: (Not very well thought out, but you get the idea of diversification) 5k - PAASF 4k - DBRSY 6k - TWA 4k - GND 4k - WYG 4k - BA LEAPS 2k - GEMS 2k - WFR 4k - BAANF 8k - PDG 4k - DOL Leaps 3k - Puts as above (assuming I am already -6% here) If I were to make just one trade only, it would be BA LEAPS! Good luck!