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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: EPS who wrote (24840)	12/31/1998 5:23:00 PM
From: Wallace Rivers	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42771

Happy New Year, and most importantly, PEACE, prosperity and health to all threadsters!!

To: EPS who wrote (24840)	12/31/1998 11:08:00 PM
From: Fernando Saldanha	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42771

Victor, just out of curiosity, why is the future so bright for NOVL. Every IT person I talk to says Novell software is being gradually replaced by Windows NT. I don't think this is a good development since competition is good for the consumer, but it seems to be a fact of life. Where is Novell going to be five years from now? Regards. Fernando

To: EPS who wrote (24840)	1/2/1999 2:57:00 AM
From: EPS	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42771

Trading 101 or how to make 11K look like 110K? Oh yeah another sleepless night with high fever and flu. What to do? Well let's investigate the trades of the rich and famous -but honest- traders...The names have been changed.. In his columm Mr Della claims a profit of 110k for his trades. Let's examine the details: By: Della Reply To: None Saturday, 3 Oct 1998 at 12:46 PM EDT Post # of 587 ... I bought Jan 10 Calls. ============================== By: Q Reply To #198 by della Sunday, 4 Oct 1998 at 2:39 PM EDT Post # of 587 <<I bought Jan 10 Calls.>> Paul if that was you who bought 20 Jan 10 calls at 2 3/8s, the MM sure gave you a decent price. Premium is barely 3/8s over the in-the-money part of the contract. =============================== By: della Reply To: None Thursday, 22 Oct 1998 at 2:47 PM EDT Post # of 587 NOVL at 13 9/16ths The suckers rally continues, or in the case of NOVL, just gets started. Took another 1/6th of my position off the table at 13 1/2. ============================================== ========================================== By: della Reply To: None Friday, 13 Nov 1998 at 11:13 PM EST Post # of 587 Worried yet??? Perhaps you've noticed that NOVL isn't running up to earnings. In fact NOVL is behaving poorly again --- down on days when other techs are up. Take heart. Today another 1668 Jan 15 Calls were sold. So someone is locking in another point or so premium and someone is betting that NOVL will be north of 16 by mid January. But think of it this way---if you expect a modest quarter then 16 in January looks pretty good and so goes the thinking of the Call writers locking in their profits. ================= By: della Reply To #567 by jf Thursday, 24 Dec 1998 at 2:11 PM EST Post # of 587 NOVL @ 17 Well here is what I think. I have a short position at 18+ and I'm holding Jan 10 Calls. That locks in 8 bucks profit. The simplest thing to do is for me to cover the short on Jan 4th with the exercise of the 10 option. I makes my money. However I too have been noticing how it bounces up everytime it dips below 17. In addition every tech stock has been going price crazy lately. Look at MSFT --- from 116 to 143 without a major correction. So what kills us is the correction, which we know is coming but which we don't know when. I am inclined to believe that we already saw the test of the low at 16-16 1/2. It came very soon after the earnings. NOVL hasn't participated in the recent rally except to resist downward pressure. So after the first of the year how many people, such as employees holding options will sell? If they do then you might get back to 16 - 16 1/2 again. But to get to 15 either the market has to tank or rumor about Novell's first quarter has to be very bad --- especially its Netware 5 sales. Watch what those insiders do! I'm therefore inclined to cover my short immediately after the first of the year and then wait for Novell to benefit from the rotation out of the techs that have run up. If that doesn't materialize then I'll exercise and get out and wait for a correction to get back in. If the correction doesn't happen, then I'll count my 120K and myself as lucky anyway and move on to another stock. The people betting on NOVL being the next AMZN are really betting against the odds. Merry Christmas!!! ============================================================= Analysis: Assuming that 20 Jan 10 were bought at 2 3/8, and a short position was started @18 at this point in time the trader has a profit of 5 5/8 times 2000 which gives us more or less 11K not 110K... Since parts of the position had been sold before (@ 13+) it is hard to see where those numbers come from. The claim that such a trade could lock a profit of 8 is of course incorrect. ==================================================== There is nothing wrong with trading up and down a stock trying to time the prices... It is very hard though. An investor that bought 10,000 shares of NOVL @ 7 at the beginning of the year '98 and just came back from a one year cruise will find a profit of precisely $110K. (Since it may not be clear to all students we should note that the investor does not have to take profits at this point.) Such an investor will very likely be in a jolly good mood and will be wishing all of us a Happy New Year! Victor