Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gus who wrote (5135)	1/2/1999 3:39:00 AM
From: Z Analyzer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9256

<<That's an expanding installed base, by the way. And EMC is spending $800 million in software development over the next three years to further widen its already considerable lead over IBM, Compaq, Sun and a field of 150 or so players. >>This is what scares me about EMC. (Other than a sky high valuation that makes me feel I missed the boat. Like owning Cisco or microsoft, you are in the enviable position of being able to let your profits run. HTCH is now the same for me although I realize HTCH is not a one decision company, possibly unlike EMC). Also, if others have 75% of the market (IBM, I would guess the largest share), EMC has a ways to go before dominance is assured. Given IBM's increased competitiveness in so many areas, I would be afraid of them given the huge attraction of this market (even though EMC has cleaned up so far). Of 150 players, it also seems there could be a few surprises out of the dark. In contrast, HTCH's 60 or 70 percent market share seems likely to increase and I have to wonder when their competition decides the business is unattractive given the increasing technology, innvestment, precision and proprietary technology which must be paid for. At any rate, there's more than one way to skin a cat and I hope we both make money in 1999 with EMC selling lots of arrays with HTCH suspensions! What are your thoughts on a severe second half slowdown in anticipation of year 2000? I'm wondering about finding companies like Oracle to short given something like 40% of revenues occur in the 4th qtr when I can't see corporations making huge changes with 2000 looming. Seems to me this risk combined with a summer slowdown could lead to a major tech sell-off this spring or summer.(And a major buying opportunity!) Do you find much agreement with this thesis? If so, do you see this as much risk to EMC or other data storage companies? Later, Z