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Strategies & Market Trends : CXI-Commodore Environmental -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Lou Farrell who wrote (1461)1/1/1999 11:20:00 AM
From: KewlHand  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1755
 
Happy new year peoples

With you on the warrants Lou, I'm playing the warrants exclusivly at moment.
On the basis that CXI is a punt (make or break) may as well go for
maximum gearing, and at 1/32 the warrants were unbelievable value,
still good at 1/16 (IMHO).

If GAO or ACWA comes through with funding putting CXI back in the main
game then we are looking at a $2-3 stock at that point easily, the
warrants will probably trade at about $0.60-0.80 then.

So $1000 in stock now @3/8 would give you 2666 shares = $8000 @$3.00
$1000 in warrants @1/32 would give 32000 warrants = $25600 @$0.70

Of course, should they actually get through ACWA and get a contract
then the difference becomes greater. Suppose the stock hits the
exercise price of the warrants ($8.40), warrants (with any time value
left) traditionally trade at half (or better) the stock price as the
stock hits the exercise price.

So:

From your original $1000 you have:

2666 Stock @$8.40 = $22394
or 32000 Warrants @$4.20 = $140800

I know which I prefer!

Of course if they dont make the chemical weapons gig, the question
you have to ask yourself is what is the chance of them even approaching the exercise price buy June 2001? (the exercise date), I'd say fair, but if they don't make ACWA I'd be looking to ditch these
warrants with about a years worth of time value (June 2000). So from
my personal point of view this company has 18 months to get ACWA and/or start to make significant progress.

regards

kh

PS: Lou the examples are not really for you, just for anyone that reads the thread that doesn't understand the benefits of warrants.