To: HG who wrote (16668 ) 1/1/1999 12:41:00 PM From: Dave Mansfield Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 27307
I believe that in part I understand your investment philosophy. But I also believe it does not entirely throw out fundamental analysis. Eventually, every stock (including Microsoft, which has) must earn enough to justify their valuation. You alluded to this in the following statement: >>I believe the market cap is justified based on future potential.<< By that statement, you appear to indicate that Yahoo will grow into their valuation. Doing such does not mean you are throwing out fundamental valuation methods, it just means that you are not employing them now. But based on your future expectations for growth, it would appear that you believe they will eventually begin to merge. If you expect this growth and if you wish to remain a prudent investor who cares about their money, then it probably makes sense to track the progress towards those goals. There's nothing to track if you have no goals set. When competition enhances, when ad rates begin to fall, when the market gets saturated, when the growth in ad revenue from Softbank can no longer be sustained, growth will slow. For your investment style that may be OK if growth doesn't slow too much. But if you have nothing to peg it to, you will be unaware of that slowing down. Your investment style was employed with Zitel (a Y2K company) and Presstek (a printing company). Both had unique technologies. Zitel a highly automated Y2k remediation and testing process, Presstek a new printing process where they would sell the printers (shavers) and the plates (blades) and make tons of money on both. And in Presstek's case, a process that reduced or eliminated pollution. Zitel traded as high as $72 and now trades at $4.25, Presstek traded at $100 and now trades at just under $7. I suggest you go back a couple of years on both. Look at message boards, look at charts. The similarities are uncanny. I encourage you or anybody on this board to share with any of us the name of any company who maintained a p/e in excess of 100 for more than 5 years. eventually, every company needs to support it's price through earnings and no company can sustain 100% growth for more than a few years.