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Technology Stocks : AUTOHOME, Inc -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ahhaha who wrote (3719)	1/1/1999 12:49:00 AM
From: Tim McCormick	Respond to of 29970

Thanks for elucidating your dream. Tim

To: ahhaha who wrote (3719)	1/1/1999 12:07:00 PM
From: RocketMan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29970

Wow, and I thought AOL-ers with irrationally exhuberant. They are mere pikers... But if you think the gummint is going to allow ATHM or any company to have the cable cake and eat it too, well... look at Gates. I suppose, though, that is where your governmental opinions come from. What bothers me is there is a chance that you may be right, and that AOL may be right, and that MSFT will come in and clean house after they are done with DOJ. Which is why I like to be in all three.

To: ahhaha who wrote (3719)	1/1/1999 1:29:00 PM
From: JDM	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 29970

ahhaha, I could not agree with you more. My perspective. As a former US Naval Officer, 6 years mostly @ sea, I was late in joining Corporate America - started Feb 97. Got my first PC PII w/ Windows 95 in Aug 97 AND like the "duped" signed up with AOL for Internet access/service right away. Was thinking 'safety in numbers', I guess. The CD carpet bombings began (and are still going on) even though I was a member. Within months was fed up with busy signals and wait; switched to MSN, not much better. Then I was getting 2 X the CD bombings. Subscribed with @HOME in April 98. Can not remember how I survived without it! Will never go back to dial-up. Recently moved to Boston for temporary corporate assignment. Arranged to have Media One Express (part of UMG) cable internet access as part of the deal - its almost as good as @Home. In October during a SJC visit was polled by some T telemarketers as to whether I would be interested in a single provider for Cable TV, Cable Internet, Local and Long-distance phone service all for a competitive price. SIGN ME UP!! I am sure wireless will be included soon as well. I mean really, why should I have to write 4+ checks per month for "Communication" fees?! The desire to communicate is innate in humans; regardless of race, creed or color. People will always pay for better, more convenient communication techniques before cheap and less expensive ones. The world is moving towards BB. T, ATHM, WCII and others are fueling this Revolution. AOL does have numbers and cash but they better move fast or else they'll die on the vine. Dial-up is reaching diminishing returns, both the ILECs and AOL know it, but their greed has made them slow to change. AOL is pinned to a dying medium. XDSL is a temporary solution at best, AOL knows this too. Now that the DOJ has approved the T & TCI merger, AOL has been very quiet. As far as to AOL's whining to the FCC, @Home could not pay for better publicity. My biggest fear, @Home and T not being able to keep up with the growth and demand. Evidenced recently by significant delays in Fremont, Ca. with @Home.

To: ahhaha who wrote (3719)	1/1/1999 2:31:00 PM
From: Tim McCormick	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 29970

Actually my numbers may have been way too optimistic. ATHM will add about 85m new subscribers this qt. The cablecos responsible for customer cable split, modem configuration, NIC install truck rolls will have difficulty ever averaging more than 3 installs per day per truck team. At the current install rate, less than 400 truck teams are allocated by cablecos for ATHM installs. To achieve a 1.9M new subscribers per year run rate, the number of truck teams allocated needs to exceed 2,100. The cablecos have little chance to ramp this install capacity at such a tremendous rate. Furthermore, less than 20% of cable plant is currently two-way HFC. ATHM's own projections call for a period of 5 years before more than 50% is two-way HFC. Concerning subscription revenues, I used ATHM keeping 100% of subscriber payments. Cableco contracts call for ATHM to keep only 35% of these revs. While it is assumed the ATT acquisition of TCI is good for ATHM, this may not be as significant re two-way HFC plant upgrade as hoped. ATT may concentrate on cable telephony first, and ATHM's cableco contracts exclude them from residential telephony services. Concerning @Work, @Work is not leveraging the advantages of in-ground cable plant to the extent that @Home is. In fact @Work is using mostly SDSL transmission systems in a much more competitive field. Concerning @Media, ATHM is at a significant disadvantage to Roadrunner in this regard as Roadrunner can leverage TWX content. Furthermore, ATHM's cable contracts exclude them from streaming media beyond 10 min. clips both in an effort to not strain cable plant and to not directly compete with traditional video services. Concerning share dilution, my assumption of 30% more shares outstanding was way to low, as ATHM is issuing warrents to cablecos for plant upgrade milestones at a rate much higher than this. Add an equity secondary for working capital within 18 mos. as well as employee options and 70 to 80% may be appropriate. Further, ATHM's exclusivity contracts with cablecos expire in less than 3 1/2 years, which is probably before they achieve profitability. Internationally such clauses are not allowed in many countries including Canada. In the meantime if Roadrunner's content blows @media away, the captive transmission infrastructure may prove illusory. Also, before someone accuses me of being Mr. shorty, I have no position in ATHM. I do own HLIT and CCBL in the equipment realm. I just want to know what ATHM is worth. Fire Away, Tim