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Technology Stocks : All About Sun Microsystems -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: QwikSand who wrote (12993)	1/1/1999 10:11:00 PM
From: cfimx	Respond to of 64865

qwik, Thanks for the invitation. But I don't think the timing is right for me to come back and beat a "dead horse." My argument is a simple one and shouldn't need to be rehashed day in and day out anyway. If the sunw starts going down NOW, it will most likely NOT be for the reasons I have established on this thread, over and over. It will likely be because of 1) too high multiple 2) Growth slows due to INDUSTRY and or ECONOMIC fundamentals 3) the market goes down and drags sunw with it. It thus, wouldn't be fair for me to come over at that point and gloat. ( I won't be GLOATING ANYWAY unless sunw's total return to investors falls below the s & p 500 hurdle, calculated from the day I joined si.) There is but a SLIGHT chance (10% - 20%) that the competitive challenge could be felt sooner, rather than later, as I previously postulated. In that case, you will see me sooner, rather than later. There. You've been warned!<G> You will see me again IF and when sunw begins (probably before) to tank based on my longstanding hypothesis that many of you are cognizant of. That is, new competition is coming that will force sunw to adopt markedly lower gross margins AHEAD of their ability to cut operating expenses, resulting in falling earnings growth or a collapse in earnings. If sunw deteriorates FOR THAT REASON, and we will know it is THAT reason because the intelligentsia will have recognized it (belatedly) as such, I will come back and have it out with all of you. If however, I find that my thesis for sunw is flat out wrong, instead of just delayed (I will know WITHIN 12 months or so),then I am prepared AGAIN to come on this thread to admit my miscalculation, this time probably FOR GOOD. Thanks again for the invite. I'll be thinking about all of you. PS: I will, however, stop by and let you know if I initiate a bearish position on sunw—but ONLY to provide comic relief for the thread this year!<G> Best of luck to all of you!