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Strategies & Market Trends : Trader J's Inner Circle -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Trader J who wrote (2934)	1/1/1999 11:50:00 AM
From: Trader J	Respond to of 56537

CAND - This is a response to a thread member here that had a question about CAND (a recent Tmex pick). I had never done much DD on it until his post and, although not real sexy right now ...... it looks ok for a play at some point. However, I think you will see some selling when it nears 4 as the last of the Tmex holders exit the position. Below is my response: ------------------------------- CAND - Well, I must admit I was getting prepared to give you a "not so good" report on CAND but I just did a quick DD on it, and it doesn't look 1/2 bad. You have great support at the $3 level, volume has been up recently, probably due to the TMex call, 2 Analysts are covering the stock with a strong buy rating and earnings are projected to double this next year. Not to mention that it is trading at a very respectable 10 P/E. You may want to read the Dec. 2nd earning report but nothing is said there that is alarming. Sales are up and growing incrementally. Made a nice acquisition. The only scary thing about this issue is that they are in a very trendy sector: Girls footwear, hand-bags, and now jeans. Feast or famine. But, depending on your time horizon....I don't see why it shouldn't be pushing 6 at some point. I don't see a lot moving it very short term as earnings were just out this month. On many of these issues, earnings are the only real motivating factors to buy, or sell. TJ

To: Trader J who wrote (2934)	1/1/1999 12:08:00 PM
From: Trader J	Respond to of 56537

NAVR & COOL: Both of these are looking very ripe to me right now but for different reasons. NAVR - Has been completely left for dead as investors have tired of the "when is the IPO (NetRadio)" game. I believe this issue will fly and I only see downside to, maybe, 8 .... if we can get another good Inet selloff. This issue will fly in my opinion. I do not own any now but it is on the top of my list of those I would buy on any further weakness...or strength. I would not be surprised to see this in the mid 20s in January. COOL - Becoming a very solid company with good partnerships incl AMZN, it will be supported. Their revenue growth last quarter and 200+ 6 mos. growth will only continue to rise and should pull this issue up further. The narrower than expected loss has gotten people's attention. I see downside risk of about 10 points but I realistically, I don't see much short term risk below 25. If the nets continue weak, I would buy this issue on further pull backs, but I would be willing to risk a buy right now. So much will be determined by the Inet sector as a whole as few will flourish if the entire sector sags, but this is one of those issues that will run with Inets....in a big way. TJ

To: Trader J who wrote (2934)	1/1/1999 12:22:00 PM
From: Trader J	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 56537

ONSL - For those of you with more risk tolerance looking for the big kill. ONSL may be your bet. With EBAY and UBID getting all the attention of late, it will only be a little longer until ONSL receives renewed interest. This is one of those issues as I see it that can drop a dramatic 15-20 points or could rise 80 ... within a months time. I would not mind a small wager on this issue at this time, especially if we can eek out another day or two of Inet selling and market indecision. This issue has a good following and, although, really the first auction site, it is still considered a second tier Inet .... I don't think that will last. What is the risk factor? How will the dilution on many auction type sites affect ONSL. EBAY, EGGS, UBID ...... all are competing for the same business and it could take its toll.....but not yet. You can look at most Inets in two ways as I do. With many companies, most appreciation and volume activity will take place around earnings season while expectation is high. During periods of lackluster price action and no news, the price will stagnate within a narrow range. Taking a position during an earnings announcement is a risky proposition at best. The Inet however, trade under a different umbrella. Psychologoy and Sentiment move them violently one way, then the next, despite earnings season or not. This can make for some very nice trades. I suggest keeping a few of your favorite issues around that see good action as they near earnings and play those during these periods. But also keep a few of those ever-hot Inets that could blow at any second for interim trading. I have heard no one say that Inet trading is becoming boring and there is always a play out there. TJ

To: Trader J who wrote (2934)	1/1/1999 12:24:00 PM
From: Trader J	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 56537

Trading: There is no trading better than an issue that you are intimately familiar with. Round up 10 or so of these and study them, learn them, and trade them. Some of my favorites are IFCI, AFCI, CYMI, CPQ, TAVA, ABTX, CIEN, PSQL, C, etc. Sure, every now and then one of them may bite you in the butt but the nice part is that you can hold them indefinitely and eventually, you will pull a point out of it, if you so choose. TJ