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Technology Stocks : FSII - The Worst is Over? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (2364)	1/1/1999 1:38:00 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2754

Since a 2 year comparison has just been made, the following is a three year comparison. In this case there are a couple of differences. Three of the stocks in the group of 41, CFMT, CYMI and DPMI have no stocks prices for 12/31/95, therefore no comparison can be made for these three stocks. They are grouped together at the top of the table. The SOX-X was not in existence on 12/31/95, therefore no comparison can be made for this index. The group sum for the column under 12/31/98 excludes the values of these three stocks. In this way the remaining 38 stocks can be compared on an "apples to apples" basis. This table shows, that as a group over the 3 year period, the sum of the group stock prices is down by 4 percent. A fair statement might be that if you were a "buy and hold" investor over the past 3 years, and that if you were an "average" stockpicker, you would have lost money. If you had picked one of the stocks in the lower half of the table, the results would have been even worse. I think it illustrates how easy it is for a person to lose big money in the stock market unless great care is taken in picking the "right stocks". As the table below, and the previous 2 tables show, a large number of stocks in the group over the 1, 2 or 3 year period tabulated are down considerably. Yet if you look at the predictions today of growth put forth by the analysts over the next 1, 2 to 5 years, they show all 41(or 38) stocks with double digit growth rates. This implies that all stocks will show positive price appreciation over the same period, but past results do not support this outlook. 16 stocks are up, and 22 stocks are down over the 3 year period. 3 of the stocks, ASMLF, VECO and ETEC are up over 200 percent. 13 of the stocks are down 50 percent or more. 12/31/95 12/31/98 CLOSE CLOSE PERCENT SYMBOL COMPANY PRICE PRICE CHANGE CFMT CFM Technologies 8.50 CYMI Cymer 14.63 DPMI Dupont Photomasks 42.44 ASMLF ASM Lithography Holdings 8.31 30.50 267 VECO Veeco Instruments 14.50 53.13 266 ETEC Etec System 11.25 40.00 256 ATMI ATMI Inc 10.00 25.25 153 AMAT Applied Materials 19.69 42.69 117 NVLS Novellus Systems 27.00 49.50 83 PLAB Photronics 13.38 23.97 79 TER Teradyne 25.13 42.38 69 KLAC KLA Instruments 26.06 43.38 66 SFAM SpeedFAM 11.25 17.13 52 PRIA Pri Automation 17.57 26.00 48 ASYT Asyst Technologies 17.63 20.38 16 MICN Micrion 10.50 11.75 12 BRKS Brooks Automation 13.25 14.63 10 NANO Nanometrics 7.38 7.81 6 MASK Align-Rite International 11.50 11.63 1 COHU Cohu 25.50 22.00 -14 CMOS Credence Systems 22.88 18.50 -19 KLIC Kulicke & Soffa Industries 23.25 17.75 -24 HELX Helix Technology 19.75 13.00 -34 GSNX Gasonics 13.50 8.75 -35 PHTN Photon Dynamics 8.00 5.13 -36 UTEK Ultratech Stepper 25.75 16.00 -38 FSII FSI International 20.25 10.38 -49 IMSC Integrated Measurement Systems 14.75 7.50 -49 SVGI Silicon Valley Group 25.25 12.75 -50 EGLS Electroglas 24.50 11.75 -52 SMTL Semitool 13.00 6.13 -53 WJ Watkins Johnson 43.75 20.38 -53 IPEC Integrated Process Equipment 23.50 10.75 -54 SFLX Smartflex Systems 17.75 7.25 -59 LRCX Lam Research 45.75 17.81 -61 MTSN Mattson Technology 15.00 5.78 -61 TGAL Tegal 10.25 2.88 -72 LTXX LTX 9.13 2.56 -72 WFR MEMC Electronic Materials 32.63 8.50 -74 AFLX Adflex Solutions 26.75 6.94 -74 ASEC Aseco 16.50 1.38 -92 TOTALS 721.79 693.99 -4