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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Art Stone who wrote (13389)	1/1/1999 2:58:00 PM
From: BomboochaBoy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13594

AOL 99: KING OR PAUPER? POLL update; 1/31/99 188; 1/1/00 377 Well, well, there are two more additions to the list thanks to Phillip Strong and Art Stone. Phillip's forecast of 200 (Jan. 31) and 460 (Jan. 1, 2000) is slight ly more bullish than the crowd. Art, well, he's in a corner of his own. Art's estimate of 37 for AOL in 365 days is, by eons, the most bearish on the list. As he said on Thursday, there is more downside than up in the long term for the nation's No. 1 on-line service. AOL today announced 15 million subscribers. With a market capitalization of about $70 billion means the MC/subscriber ratio has now reached something like $4600. The much touted "Cable TV" valuation model pointed a year or two ago at a valuation of $600-$1000 per subscriber. What's changed? How can $21.95/month + a few dollars/month advertising revenue justify this valuation? As the cliche goes, time will tell. Thanks to Strongman (Phillip) and Art. All new or updated picks are welcome. Here's the update. 1999 2000 Jan31 Jan1 250 500 Annette 250 540 tang 230 400 Dave Kosmayer 214 400 Bret 210 450 CRICKET 204 260 David Montgomery 200 460 Phillip A. Strong 200 400 Brian Malloy 200 37 Art Stone 192 470 Voltaire 190 475 49er Steve 190 387 Uncle Frank 185 400 lebo 182 409 Modano 182 300 Jolie Renee 180 280 Jorge 170 530 Frank Ellis Morris 170 425 Vendit 168 260 bob 160 425 Larry 155 320 BomboochaBoy 150 250 LindyBill 145 300 sakura averages 1999 2000 Jan31 Jan1 188 377 (4377) (8678) (23 polled) =========================== Analysts' targets MSN 6/99 $246 6/00 $379 Gerard Klauer Mattison $175