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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tinsoldier who wrote (24850)	1/1/1999 9:17:00 PM
From: ToySoldier	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42771

Hmmm - NOVL Predictions for the year ehhh? (a little Canuck there for you all) Lets see... From what we have seen last year there have been a few relatively predictable trends. One, that Dr. Schmidt has made it a point to exceed street price almost every Q. Two, the spike has been nice after the earnings announcements but not long lasting (it returned back to pre-announcement shortly). Three, the earning announcements have normally not been the factor that has caused NOVL to take its next step up in the price - product announcements and news releases were the major factors that were responsible for NOVL's price hikes during the year. Things to consider this year - 1999 (I love writing that). - NOVL does not have a major product release to look forward to this year except for possible Mondesto in late 1999. - Y2K impact to NOVL sales will have a noticable impact (as it will for other software hardware companies). - Delivery of fruits to the announcements that NOVL made late in 98 will be critical (i.e. Nortel, Tivoli, Lucent, Cisco, etc.). - The MSFT NT5 delivery progress (or lack there of) and DOJ woes will be an influence to NOVL's stock price. - NOVL is expected to substantially increase its sales and consulting force over the next 3-12 months. This will impact sales - but to what extent? - More development and partnering announcements will likely be expected and the level of profile on these announcements will affect the stock. Q Earning Reports on: late Feb, May, Aug, Nov So here are my predictions for NOVL for 1999 (hopefully I'm as right as last year).... Current price at the start of 1999: $18 1/8 I think we will see NOVL's stock break $20 before the end of January because of possible late Jan announcements. NOVL is also having a very high profile partners forum in the 3rd week in Jan and that may also hype the stock. It may go above $20 but will settle back to the $20 range. It will peak and valley in this area until the Q1 announcement where the stock will spike again as NOVL beats a the street earnings by .02-.03 cents (this has been a very predictable trend for NOVL). Wall street will reward NOVL for this strengthened positive trend upward. NOVL stock in the end of Feb might be $23. Some minor news releases and maybe a surprise NR between Q1 and Q2 but the stock will sit in the $22 - $24 range until May. Y2K sales will be a positive to NOVL product sales for the first 6 months as companies are scrambling to upgrade older NetWare as an excuse to upgrade to new product. These sales will show in the Q2 earnings and NOVL will have a very good Q2 announcements - at least .03 or more over street price. By end of May I predict NOVL in the $25 range. I think that the great Q2 results and the prediction that MSFT will not have received great news from the DOJ and NT5 fronts will bode well for NOVL stock price. NDS for NT and great NW5 sales will cause the stock to creep forward. Media over the next 6 months will be putting more NOVL ink on their press as the "NOVL is Back" story will be more high profile. Y2K will now be turning around on hardware/software companies regarding sales and NOVL will feel a slowing of product sales due to Y2K (resulting from the customer's "Batten down the hatches" attitude). Q3 results will just meet street estimates and NOVL's stock will not jump far from the earnings announcement. Price for end of Aug - $25-$27. The Y2K thing will continue to hit NOVL sales in the last few months of 1999 and I think the market in general will possibly shy a bit away from the Tech sector all together due to Y2K impact. But NOVL will possibly have the Mondesto annoucement if Intel is ready and a couple other possible high profile announcements near the Q4 date will cause NOVL's stock to stay in the $27 - $29 range by year-end 1999. So thats my predictions for 1999. Summary: Current: $18 End of Jan: $20 End of Feb: $23 End of May: $25 End of Aug: $25 - $27 End of year: $27 - $29 Toy