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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Monty Lenard who wrote (3189)	1/1/1999 5:46:00 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

I'm jealous. Wanted to go today ... but I've got to fix a set of waders -- too cold to have leaks right now!

To: Monty Lenard who wrote (3189)	1/2/1999 4:25:00 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

I know and I cringed when I wrote it but I just don't feel we can say the market is going to finally have a small cap rally or go up because the kids left behind to mind the store while those traders with seniority were off on X-mas vacation were controlling the big money. I saw a lot of stocks move the last 2 shortened weeks that haven't moved in a long time. I also saw some flagerant games being played in the way the TICK swung trying to lift or depress the indexes to convenient levels. Anyone watching the last hour of trading on Thursday should know what I mean. There was a lot of money being used trying to goose the market up and the market didn't want to go that way. When they kept goosing it more and more and yet the SPX wouldn't clinb with a +500 TICK so they kept pushing it until it finally reached 800+ to get it moving, it sent a bad signal to me anyway. Also soon as they backed off, the market fell hard and it took a TICK of over 1000 just to stop the fall so we would only end down 90 DOW points. I just don't see this as bullish yet I don't see a crash either. I think the kids weren't allowed too much free reign and the houses didn't want to hold too much over the weekend. Now that we are going to have a few full weeks of trading and there are going to be more companies releasing earnings, we will finally get a look at how the market is going to move. The last 2 weeks were shortened, had many traders missing creating off balence trading situations and had no real earnings guidance. I personally want to wait and see at least the first few hours of trading before I jump in for day trades and a few days of trading before I position trade. BWTHDIK Lee

To: Monty Lenard who wrote (3189)	1/3/1999 9:56:00 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Respond to of 99985

Hi Monty; Being the charts have not changed yet since Thursday, I'm using this post to point out how I see the liquid factor. --------- Of course one day and particularly that being the last day of the year does not mean I think what happened Thursday is going to set the tone, just that it was a good day to see the idea. All in all my Dow model is plenty liquid and Thursday didn't change that much. If any thing it could signal a better move up in the small caps. -------- Plenty of funds had losers in the small caps from last summer, and they had plenty of Tax write offs already on the books, they may have decided with a year in front of them to buy back some sml and mid caps, and a lot of last min window dressing was likely going on. -------- As for AOL the big indexes had to buy about 1/2 of 1% their portfolio size, to make it balance,if they didn't have a lot of spare cash they sold other stuff, that rotation had some over head to it, if new money was not coming in the spreads alone took the S&P down on the swaps. ------- It will take a few days to see what the new year will actually bring & with out giving much if any thing to the way the indexes did Thursday, they are still good to show the type of thing, that if it continues , changes the markets liquid factor, in this case it reduces it, a lot of that can happen before she falls, but if it does then the fall is hard. All in all I half way expect it to go up even though it looks toppy, at least I think the Sml caps will get some attention. -------- Message 7050239 -------- Actully it was the Mid cap sector that was so strong, and this on a day the internuts didn't make much of a showing, and AOL moved out of them. Lot's of rotation is all I can see. Jim