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Technology Stocks : AUTOHOME, Inc -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: FR1 who wrote (3750)	1/2/1999 1:30:00 AM
From: ahhaha	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29970

Quite correct. Also, these numbers might represent expected future growth rates, but they are only the market's current best guess. Market's don't know the future and price does not predict price. Both price and markets are constantly adjusting reflecting new knowledge and change in expectations. This is one reason why there is so much confusion and misunderstanding concerning the Random Walk Thesis. At any instant all the past knowledge tells you nothing of what will happen in certainty in the future, near or far. There is no "momentum", that is, tendency for what is known to determine what is yet to come. Price can be perfectly volatile, square well. It can go to zero or infinity instantaneously. Either case means that there is no transactional activity. The market is closed. There is only a probabilistic chance that this or that will occur and the probabilities are impossible to determine. You fly by the seat of your pants. You don't truly learn this until you've done at least 4,000 transactions. By then you see that trading is futile and you begin to believe in the academic actuarial reality of the Thesis. It is true however that somehow we get from here to there. All you have to do is dream up where there is. ATHM seems like it is the steepest ride to there, but I don't know that.