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Technology Stocks : America On-Line (AOL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jorge who wrote (804)	1/2/1999 11:47:00 AM
From: Steve Robinett	Respond to of 41369

George & Robert, Re: AOL's growth, all I can go on is the numbers. Quarter after quarter, I've heard the "leverage" argument, that AOL will leverage their customer base with ecommerce and advertising, yet quarter after quarter advertising and other revenues amount to about 16 1/2 % of total revenues. The dollar amount of that 16 1/2 % of course grows as subscribes grow but the percentage contribution to total revenues remains about the same. That looks like linear growth to me--add a subscriber, grow proportionally. This does not mean I am negative on AOL long term. Indeed, they not only have earnings there days but actual cash flow, mostly due to the price bump. Short term, however, the recent runup has come very far very fast, 50% in 3 weeks. A lot of people have made a lot of money very fast. They would prefer to sell in 99 rather than 98 for obvious tax reasons. I would guess AOL see, say, $130/shr before it sees $180. Best, --Steve