Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: E_K_S who wrote (24853)	1/2/1999 1:08:00 AM
From: ToySoldier	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 42771

So many responses...So little time... First point to Paul (who likely directed is stab at me but is not the best at reading). Predictions are just that. Guesses of the future. Someone asked on the thread for people to make them. I did. Just as I did last spring. And Paul, even though I do not have any NOVL stock , my predictions for NOVL in '98 were more than worth a dime since I almost hit the predictions on the head! Your logic about having to own stock to make a valid opinion is seriously flawed. You dont need to own stock in a company in order to predict its direction. Eric, (Again to point out - THESE ARE ALL MY PURE OPINIONS) I would guess that NOVL will earn about .65 - .75 per share this year. A guess on the Q's would be: Q1=.15, Q2=.18, Q3=.18, Q4=.17 = Year total of approx. .68. It will likely hit over $1 in 2000 once the Y2K monkey is off everyone's back, their NDS lead is secured (i.e. if and when MSFT finally puts out its crappy Active Directory so that customers can see what they shouldnt't have been missing), and the recovery story leads to direct results in customer confidence causing increased sales. From what I remember, NetWare currently only generates approx. 60% of NOVL's revenue and that percentage is expected to continually drop if NOVL has their way. They would like to see NetWare making up about 40% of the revenue pie. NDS licensing and products (like NDS for NT) will take up the majority of the gain in percentage. NOVL wants to reduce the reliance on 1 major product line being the source of revenue (that currently is NetWare). I think sales will be increase a better than you stated since early 98 revenue was lower than late 98. But remember, dont expect expenses to go down. In fact I think expenses in sales and marketing will increase because of NOVL's current plans to dramatically increase their sales and marketing force in 99. It will be interesting to see how my predictions turn out this year. Toy