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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Oil and Gas Exploration Companies -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacques Tootight who wrote (108)	1/2/1999 8:37:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 318

R.C; I've spent part of this weekend planning for 1999 - I am heavy & hard into the Oil Service & Drillers, 75% service - 25% drillers. I've been in & out of HEC SEV APA APC RRC and a few others. Actually; I think the drillers and service stocks have bottomed. I am re-evaluating the E&P's - for now I'd only buy very, very beaten down stocks. Unfortunately my 3 favorites here EVER APA APC are ''NOT'' beaten down to a major degree at all. For that reason; given the substantial write-downs potentially this sector may have to take ''if'' crude prices remain low for a prolonged period; I would only buy Natural Gas oriented companies that have strong balance sheets and strong upside ability to increase production & reserves; or the ''decimated'' balanced, or Crude oriented companies. I'd say I am more cautious, than I was a week ago on the E&P's. Some very beaten down stocks like EEX (when it went to $5 post reverse split !) FEN WZR RRC HEC SEV (at $5) BNO & COHO are good bottom fishing ideas, but are high risk imho. SGO is badly beaten down and isn't going out of business given their merger with OEI. PGEI has an interesting future and is a low debt company, also MLRC & MARY are 2 high upside Natural Gas plays and are 2 of my favorites here. I like MLRC the best. All in all; I'm looking to see what the write down situation will be in the next series of Earnings Reports and will look for some special situations where individual stocks sell off irrationally. Again; I think the drillers & service companies have bottomed, but perhaps not the E&P sector. I think the small caps with high debt may have, but they have so much risk ... For the solid companies like APA APC EVER that I want to own; I'm taking a wait & see approach ... May trade some of the decimated stocks like FEN PGEI & RRC here. I may jump back into HEC as a longterm buy & hold and perhaps LUKOY - the Russian company as well; for the risk portion of my portfolio. Part of the problem for me; is I see greater risk vs. reward plays in the drillers & service stocks than in the E&P's. There are more beaten down stocks with the potential to double or even triple; that do not have the balance sheet weakness/risk that many of these E&P's have; so I have a hard time pulling $ from those companies like GLBL VTS SCSWF VRC FGI that have so much upside and a little less risk , to move into the E&P's. I think the Street will move the Driller & Service Stocks up quicker as well... just my 2 cents fwiw.