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To: jim black who wrote (8410)	1/2/1999 2:55:00 PM
From: Joe NYC	Respond to of 10227

Jim, For my part I think WCOM just blew it bigtime letting ATI be acquired by Bell Atlantic. I think it will be more like BEL vs. T in the future. Joe

To: jim black who wrote (8410)	1/2/1999 3:35:00 PM
From: Arnie Doolittle	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10227

Re: technology, you have to ask yourself the following question: In what ways is digital wireless technology the same as computer technology (i.e. pc vs. Apple) and in what ways is it different? Here's some differences: 1. Computers (C): Users must learn two ways of doing things. Digital wireless phones (DWP): Customers only want to know does the phone work and what is the price. (Features are/will be in the future the same for all technologies.) 2. C: Users must learn the differences between competing technologies. DWP: Customers probably don't know/don't care what digital technology they're using. 3. C: Users buy from a multitude of software options, based on their interests and needs. DWP: Users have a limited selection of options, all bound to be commodity products within a few years. 4. C: Huge growth spurt began in early '80s. DWP: Growth spurt just beginning and will continue for next 5-7 years. 5. C: Margins are currently shrinking. DWP: Margins will soar as soon as telcos reach critical mass (next 2-3 years for most). What I'm trying to say is that you can't overlay the personal computer model onto the digital wireless phone model and expect customers to view wireless technology in the same manner. Where is the "Intel Inside" in digital wireless? Or consumer IBM-Apple awareness? Who can tell you what the acronyms cdma, tdma, gsm or wcdma stand for? Not to mention the differences between the technologies. Where are the Dells, Compaqs, IBMs, Apples, etc. in wireless? Answer: There aren't any. Motorola, Ericsson, Nokia, Qualcomm? Consumers have no brand loyalty or sense of differentiation even remotely comparable to the computer industry. Thus, iDEN technology, a subset of tdma, is only of concern to users to the extent of what it can do for them. And for now NXTL has a feature, called Direct Connect (DC), which no one else has. That's how they added over 2.5 million users in the last two years. Granted, DC look alikes will evenutally be available to others, but NXTL has developed user networks which do much to lock users into long term relationships. Arnie