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Technology Stocks : Altaba Inc. (formerly Yahoo) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marion (Hijacked) who wrote (16783)	1/2/1999 4:37:00 PM
From: HG	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 27307

Marion, I have taken some of the points from your post. You have very valid points. I think of them everyday....except that my conclusions lead me to a different decisions. <<<On the one hand, PE's don't matter, but in the next breath they argue how Yahoo might possibly generate large revenues and earnings.>>> Dave has also commented. But this has been discussed so often - and I forget with how many people. You misunderstand my comment becoz it lacks a qualifier. I'd say fundamentsal matter in the long term. They also matter in determining the relative position of the company within that industry. Thus AOL emerges as a leader with the proposed merger. When you compare across industries, especially with established industries - you are discounting the embryonic stage of the internet, you are ignoring the darwinian evolution - which applies to some extent to things man made as well. Thus you are comparing apples with oranges and the difference in opinion stems from the fact that there is no unanimity on usage of any tool to validate your comaparision. Thus whereas the investors are unwilling to buy CIEN at anything beyond $14, the same investors are willing to pay huge premiums on the "potential". Your assumption they are stupid may be discounting the prudence and foresight. In the short term, fundamentals do not matter. If the company tried to make the fundamentals matter, they wouldn't be able to allocate funds for critical investments. If I move here from overseas to participate in the Silicon Valley hi tech boom, , buy a house and concentrate my efforts for the next few months on putting the house in order, would you say my earning potential is somehow reduced as a consequence of the move or would you say that I'm thinking long term ? YHOO long buys the future YHOO - a piece of management expertise, a piece of future and yes, the stock comes as a bonus. But to say that allinvestors should somehow blindly believe and hold is not a fair assessment. <<<Are you aware that most of the worlds population has never used a telephone?>>> If youuse a tiny %age of people who use telephone in the third world country, are you aware that the total number would be larger than the population of US. Are you also aware that Third world countries are more computer literate than US ? That US imports technical hands from China, India, Pakistan - that the computer industry is enjoys its success due to brain drains from these countries ? I'm not sure you understand the dynamics of earnings structure in third world countries...so it is difficult for me to make you understand what a upper middle class family in these third world countries enjoys. Suffice to say thatyour comment about affordability of PCs is not entirely correct. When we are talking potential, we talk potential - the big picture of tomorrow - not what its operation is today. New products - we are not talking about new stories, we're talking new products - like Real Estate, Restaurants - the works. As a newcomer to US, I found everything on YHOO....everything. Why would an average non IT person go to any portal except the native - be it MSN/AOL/YHOO ? For them, switching costs are high - believe me. <<<TV advertising is very effective>>> Habits are even more effective. Ever heard of Aeroplane jelly ? What about Vegemite ? I hadn't heard either. No advertising, no TV. But when I landed in Australia, I was shocked how popular it was. Because it was a food habit people had as children. Don't discount the power children have. That is what they talked about on AOL board. I agree. <<<I just don't understand why someone would hand out an Academy Award before the script is even written.>>> <GRIN> That is just the point. Some people see a bigger picture...of a tomorrow. They want to participate in creating that tomorrow. Are you the academic kind who believes in the potential of R&D or are you a computer professional who has to get the code 100% operational before a program is approved ? Both have their place in the universe. Both are correct. <<<Why do you think they would pay 30 billion for it? >>> YHOO will be acquired if the price crashes. I agree no one would pay 30m for it (though brand recognition does count for something). If it doesn't crash, I'm happy with myinvestment. If it does, I'm happy swapping my shares. This is win win.