To: whiskeyjack who wrote (11044 ) 1/2/1999 2:06:00 PM From: teevee Respond to of 26850
Hi whiskeyjack, IMO, the reasons why the market is not waiting are: 1. The geological community (members of which advise "big money" - I don't believe the recent move in the share price has been all retail buying)does not have a problem with the cone sheet model. This model is highly predictive in terms of estimating tonnage. The drilling will be confirmatory in nature. 2. The kimberlite is Type II-very low in volatiles (gas). This strongly suggests that UNLIKE Type I kimberlite, the grades will be comparatively evenly distributed. That is why IMO the market is saying and expecting the grade of the two 100 tonne samples are going to stand up. Also, because the emplacement was a comparatively much less violent process (not phreatomagmatic like typical type I kimberlite), there will be much less breakage of diamond. Another important factor is that the chemistry of the indicator minerals suggests that depth of origin was at about 300 kilometers (similar to the Mir pipe-this was the Russian source of large gem diamond that gave De Beers a very big headache for decades) versus 200 kilometers as Ekati. This infers better color (whiter to blue white stones) and less inclusions. This has also been indirectly supported by the initial evaluations. Other reasonable inferences are that the pipe never made it to surface and that about 90% of the cone sheet is intact(no surface expression of the rim of the cone sheet has yet been found on the north shore). Given the reported stone sizes to date, I estimate that about 20-25 ten carat stones should be recovered from a 5000 tonne bulk sample. Also, there is about a 50% chance of recovering a 30 carat stone (likely would be a certainty if a 10000 tonne sample was taken). IMO,If a major player like RTZ wants an assured presence in the high end of the diamond market for the next century, they are going to want to own Snap Lake. Alternately, if De Beers wants to tighten their grip and maintain control of the high end of the diamond market-perhaps even return to the glory days of the cartel, they should want to control Snap Lake as well. Luckily for us shareholders, WSP management is smart enough not to make a farmout like MPV or ABZ have done(a farmout would kill any possibility of a hostile bidding war for control of Snap Lake by buying control of Winspear). WSP still controls its own destiny. Exploration and development is not at someone else's whim or timetable which could be decades away. As far as share price is concerned, IMO, Winspear is still very cheap. The real move up hasn't even started yet. Gotta go for now. regards, teevee