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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DStandish who wrote (6593)	1/2/1999 3:03:00 PM
From: Tickertype	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 27311

Dave, you summed it all up very nicely. I have to say that reading this thread over the holidays, during the past 10 days or so, has not been much fun. The same arguments by the same people over and over and over again. It's not been much fun for us longs, and it all relates to our basic human psyche. I'll use a really simple example to illustrate my point: Say a person buys a new car for which he's paid a lot of money and is quite proud of. All his neighbors come over and point out various reasons why he may have problems with it, describing other vehicles with similar design features that had a problem history, and telling him the manufacturer also has some cashflow problems, etc. He may appreciate these inputs so he can keep an eye on the potential problem areas. But if the neighbors keep coming over, day after day, telling him the same things, he is likely to get fed up and tell them where to stuff it. Well, it's a simplistic example perhaps, but I think it applies to us longs. We've put a lot of money into Valence, in many cases many of our eggs are in the Valence basket because we've made the judgement that Lev & Co. actually DO know what they are doing and we do have confidence in the ultimate success of this venture. So to put it plainly, it gets real old, and very annoying, to hear the same mantra about the same possible disasters over and over. Once is enough, we can all read. This is the reason some longs react rather sharply to those posts, as we've seen. Am I saying that we don't want to hear the bad, only the good? Should we just banish any negative inputs from the thread so we can read only rosy scenarios? No. Not at all. I, for one, appreciate learning the details of floorless convertibles as described by Zeev, as I knew next to nothing about them previously. (BTW Zeev, if you'll just stop using "then" in all the places you mean to say "than", your "english challenged" situation will disappear. :-} ) So there it is. Beating the same two or three points to death day after day gets BORING. Find something new, guys, even if it's not good news! We don't mind. Fortunately, I believe the coming weeks will provide lots of new material for posting, and I think the tone of the discussion will turn much more favorable to us longs who only want to make a big pile of money. Now what's wrong with that? - T -

To: DStandish who wrote (6593)	1/2/1999 5:53:00 PM
From: FMK	Respond to of 27311

David, Thanks for your prediction of $27 when the first contract is announced. I had similar thoughts when comparing to the old $27 high with the $100 million Motorola contract. I remember hearing that contract was exclusive with Motorola such that Valence would not be permitted to manufacturer for anyone else, and that Motorola was a tough customer to negotiate with. This time Valence has far superior product and manufacturing techniques and another six years experience. They are not exclusively bound to any one customer and should presently be building and testing inventory to assure readiness for first shipments to meet contract requirements. My last table of applications and earnings estimates originated with the title "How good can it get by the end of '99". My purpose was to present an overview of all the possible applications I was aware of that Valence is likely to build batteries for. I had lowered my estimate of the number of OICW combat weapons that replace the M16's and lowered my overall profit margin to 33%. On the very most recent, I increased the number of outstanding shares to 40,000 show that things were still exceptionally good even after a worst-case death-spiral dilution that naysayers had warned us about. If you used 1/3 of an estimate based on those numbers, remember they were for the end of 1999. I think we are finally to the point that no matter what the naysayers have to say, we will soon have some contracts to keep the 270+ NI staff gainfully employed and our stock price will move as you predicted! Regards, FMK