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Technology Stocks : Seagate Technology - Fundamentals -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William Epstein who wrote (410)	1/2/1999 7:22:00 PM
From: Stitch	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1989

Folks, Well, speaking fundamentally, I have been trying to get my own feel for what Seagate might report to us on the 12th after the close. From a revenue point of view there is little doubt in my mind that we are in for some decent news vis a vis previous 7 quarters of reporting. Last quarter's loss of 12 cents will make this quarter look sweet indeed and confirm what we all know, and that is that the sector has seen a big improvement in sales of late. With a consensus of 26 cents and a whisper of 27 or 28 (dfepending on who is whispering) there doesn't seem to be a hint of an upside surprise potential and I agree. Those concerned about additional write offs do so astutely as Seagate is likely to charge off the Ireland plant, at around $18M if I had to guess. There is some possibility of a downside surprise but not much. I expect to see a lot of questions about SEG's VRTS and DRGN holdings during the CC. I will be listening carefully. In all I think it will a be a ho hum release, and the stock is likely to dip a bit as a result. I plan to hold through the event. I had flirted with the notion of buying back some I sold several weeks ago if it dipped below $27 but global worries have me concerned still. I recently took some profit on a semi equip that has done well, and offset those by sweeping a laggard outta my file (AINN). I have also been looking hard at the telecomm sector but no bright picks yet. SEG is still a large holding for me and I am still sticking with it. Best, Stitch