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Strategies & Market Trends : The Thread Formerly Known as No Rest For The Wicked -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tim Luke who wrote (4680)	1/2/1999 7:45:00 PM
From: Steven Messina,L.M.T.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 90042

Hey Tim. I've got your thread bookmarked. My position play for '99 will be Republic Industries (NYSE RII). Check out the action on Dec 31st....seems a lot of people want in this stock for 1999. Wayne Huisenga's buying everything he can get his hands on....too bad he's using RII stock as currency <ggg> The float's pretty high in comparison to the total shs outstanding, but with a market cap of 6.4 billion and a book value of $11.46, I'd say it's safe to begin accumulation of this giant at the current levels. Opinions welcome. Steve

To: Tim Luke who wrote (4680)	1/2/1999 8:11:00 PM
From: Rock_nj	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 90042

I think my position play meets those criteria. We'll see how it pans out this month. Food for thought... Connecting to the Internet is going to be increasingly done through high speed providers like cable and phone companies (I'm going to dump my ISP soon for a cable modem). What does the future hold for ISPs like AOL? Will they adapt in time to keep up with the high speed connection wave? This new wave could be the downfall of AOL and many other ISPs.

To: Tim Luke who wrote (4680)	1/2/1999 10:26:00 PM
From: HandsOn	Respond to of 90042

Good summation as usual!

To: Tim Luke who wrote (4680)	1/3/1999 11:10:00 AM
From: BRAVEHEART	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 90042

Hi Gang, I consider NTII an extremely undervalued stock. This company started to fall out of favor in 1997. Several significant changes have made the stock a bargain at current levels. Ultimately certain key events in 1999 have a relatively high degree of probability and thus offer a nice risk/reward ratio relative to other investments in my opinion. Especially if one considers there are only 7 million shares outstanding with later stage clinicals with large markets with unmet needs. In General: The Management of NTII is led by Paul Freiman. Paul Freiman is a former Chairman for the Pharmaceutical Manufacturers Association of America. Former Chairman & CEO of Syntex corp where he was instrumental in selling that organization to Roche Holdings for 5.3 billion Dollars. He joined NTII in April of 1997 and has cut costs ever since. He was instrumental in the MERZ deal recently and will be in on any future joint marketing and distribution agreements. He serves as chairman on the boards of Digital Gene Technologies and Otsuka American pharma. He also serves on the boards of Penford Corp, Calypte Biomedical and Lifescience Economics. He also is an advisor to Burrill & Co., a merchant bank. In my opinion he is extremely well connected to negotiate this little biotech along. A link to Burrill & Co suggests the types of companies it deals with and their investing and business philosophy. biz.yahoo.com The companies product pipeline includes Two products in Three different P-2 clinical trials. NTI is evaluating 1. Xerecept as a potential treatment for peritumoral brain edema {(swelling of brain tissue caused by a tumor) currently in P-2 testing }. Memantine is in two P-2 clinical trials for two different indications. 2. Neuropathic pain ( P-2b ). There are currently no neuroprotective treatments approved for any of the pathologies associated with NMDA-receptor overstimulation. 3. Aids Related Dementia ( P-2 ) NTI is seeking to out-license Dynorphin A, another human peptide previously tested as an analgesic agent. ********************************************************************* The companies Key product of course is Memantine for Peripherial Neuropathies. "Neurobiological Technologies, Inc. (OTC Bulletin Board: NTII - news) recently announced the initiation of a Phase IIB human clinical trial to evaluate Memantine as a treatment for painful peripheral diabetic neuropathy. The trial will evaluate the ability of Memantine to relieve chronic pain due to peripheral neuropathy or nerve damage, particularly nocturnal pain that frequently interferes with sleep. Quintiles CNS Therapeutics, a leading contract research organization with experience in neurology, will jointly manage the trial with NTI." Quintiles is no slouch in conducting human trials. "Quintiles CNS Therapeutics is a business unit of Quintiles Transnational Corp. [Nasdaq:QTRN - news], the market leader in providing a full range of integrated product development and marketing services to the pharmaceutical, biotechnology and medical device industries. Quintiles is headquartered near Research Triangle Park, North Carolina." The Market Size for Peripherial Neuropathies ( & Neuropathies in general ) is considerable: From an article titled; Drug Firms Battle Nerve Damage By PHIL GALEWITZ We Find... "In addition to diabetes, neuropathy is also caused by rheumatoid arthritis, cancer, leukemia, kidney disease, shingles and can be induced by certain drugs. As a result, the market for a neuropathy drug could be huge." "Even if only 10 percent of people with diabetic neuropathy took the drug, analysts say a company could reach $1 billion in annual sales." ''If they are successful, it has blockbuster potential,'' said Charles Engelberg, an analyst with AmeriCal Securities. biz.yahoo.com { Currently existing treatments are essentially ineffective thus a considerably large market exists for rapid penitration ) Also consider that Memantine has a seven year treatment history in Europe for other indications so the risk of Clinical failure because of side-effects is reduced considerably } Financially Speaking: The company has relatively few shares outstanding ( 7.55 million ). Hence it's success in clinicals will rapidly translate into shareholder value. Even marginal dilution with a private placement would have little impact on shareholder value in light of the product potential and advanced stages of the clinical process. Such a private placement is likely to allow for the continuation of existing clinicals while the company advances toward closing a key corporate collaboration. The companies return to valuation & cash needs should come with a significant collaboration with Big Pharma. Current & Future Collaborations: The collaboration with MERZ ( A German based operation ) could go a long way to gaining entry into these markets. In the annual Report NTII stated it received $5 million savings in development costs {( MERZ is conducting large clinicals both here and in Europe ( two trials in Europe ) for other indications for Memantine ) due to the exchange of scientific information. This included clinical trial data which NTII may use in submitting it's findings with the FDA and possibly in Europe. "MERZ and NTII will jointly seek a worldwide Marketing partner for the many indications. MERZ has P-3 trials progressing in Europe and recently began a large P-3 trial in the US for treating moderate to severe senile dementia, including Alzheimer's disease." { In my opinion this relationship gives NTII considerably more leverage than one would normally anticipate from a negotiating perspective. ) QUINTILES is the same organization which is conducting MERZ's Memantine Clinicals. I personally believe the trial will take into consideration P-2A data and be designed to prove successful. One would normally be hard pressed in the anticipation of a collaborative agreement. This one reeks of sooner rather than later. MERZ is already in P-3 testing hence this could accelerate one's expectations of some sort of collaboration for NTII. MERZ the company NTII will jointly collaborate with in seeking a marketing and distribution partner has a targeted market size of 4 million patients here in the US alone. There are two P-3 trials ongoing in Europe and one large P-3 trial here in the US, where the market size is of similar size. Conducted by non-other than Quintiles. " We are sharing our results, building a safety data-base, and along with MERZ, seeking a large global marketing partner." P. Freiman. The company still needs cash. A collaboration with big-pharma could go a long way in satisfying this need. Given enough cash and who knows the company may have all the elements to apply for relisting as it stated as one of it's goals over the next fiscal year. The stock traded down because of cash needs & the final delisting early this year and popped a bit in April with the MERZ announcement and traded back under a buck in Aug on extremely low volume. My point is once the company establishes a Big Pharma partner for "sig cash" ( see the annual report ). It will then satisfy the reason NASDAQ delisted it in the first place. The company will be a year further along in negotiations and clinicals for nothing intrinsically with the company has changed outside of it having better leadership and operating much more efficiently. Here is their web site: ntii.com Quiet frankly I believe NTII is considerably undervalued. From a technical perspective the company has considerable support at .50. It started to trend back to a dollar when what appeared to be tax loss selling took over resulting in a trend back to .50. I believe now that tax loss selling is behind us and that certain events are growing nearer the stock will start it's ascent. Furthermore, I believe that a Collaboration is possible with greater potential than that seen at CNSI recently. The last announcement which sent NTI over 1.5 came on less than 200,000 shares volume. An announcement resulting in 1 to 2 million shares could easily result in a spike to Three Dollars in my opinion. The stock could justifiably fall into a trading range between $2 and $4 dollars by year end. One of the companies stated goals in it's annual report is to get relisted on the NASDAQ exchange. The stock is required to trade above three dollars do achieve such status. The Mgmt is not prone to hype. Draw your own conclusions. PS: Tim I believe this stock fits your criteria in every respect except one. The stock is a BB stock. If however you realize the company has relisted as one of it's primary goals for 1999 then I believe it passes this test also. That the potential is extremely plausible upon closing a deal with Big Pharma. Finally, that the relatively new CEO Paul Freiman is a well connected and respected individual in the Pharma & Biotech field. I believe he is a realistic no hype sort of gentleman. Subject 8298 THE TRUTH IS OUT THERE LONE WOLF