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Strategies & Market Trends : Mr. Pink's Picks: selected event-driven value investments -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Bidder who wrote (5368)	1/3/1999 2:12:00 PM
From: Ron Harvey	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18998

Michael, CG Dina's bonds got mashed along with virtually all south-of-the border bonds when Latin America had its nasty selloff several months ago. But the company should no longer be tarred with that brush once the refinancing and restructuring (via Warburg Dillon Read) renders this a U.S. company, probably to trade under the Motor Coach Industries, Intl. name after a reverse split of the common stock and Mexican bolsa delisting. But the bonds, at best, will by no means be investment grade. I'm betting that they settle in to yield about 11% to 12% to maturity. That'd mean a price in the 80's, as they mature in 2004, meaning you factor in the capital gains along with the current interest. (In prior posts I referred only to current yield, which at Friday's close was about 15%. If you project yield to maturity, that number increases to around 23% at the current price. . . . But do I know that they'll still be doing business in five years? Of course not. Absolutely no guarantees. I just thinkthat Dina's bonds - not the common - are an especially attractive speculation for the short term and quite possibly for the longer term also.) Ron