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Gold/Mining/Energy : A Bottom in perishable commodities?/war stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (120)	1/2/1999 9:50:00 PM
From: Bobby Yellin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 178

really enjoy your comments bobby

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (120)	1/11/1999 10:02:00 PM
From: goldsnow	Respond to of 178

FOCUS-Fragile oil lifted as stocks excess eases 08:18 a.m. Jan 11, 1999 Eastern LONDON, Jan 11 (Reuters) - Convalescent world oil markets took another step along the road to recovery on Monday as winter weather in big Western markets helped ease a surplus of inventories. Benchmark Brent blend crude traded 35 cents higher by 1100 GMT to $12.08 a barrel to a two-month high, a rise of of 25 percent from the lows of mid-December. Lower than normal winter temperatures in the main consuming regions of the northeast United States and northwest Europe have helped the drain huge stocks which last year pushed prices down to levels not seen since 1976. Weather patterns play a large part in determining oil prices. Analysts calculate last year's unusally mild northern hemisphere winter cost producers more than a dollar a barrel as a result of sickly demand. Brent averaged just $13.34 against $19.30 a barrel in 1997. While colder weather in recent weeks has helped lift demand, disruptions to exports from the North Sea, West Africa and the Black Sea have also helped strengthen oil market fundamentals. ''It became fairly clear in mid-December that the European market couldn't take any significant disruptions, and significant supply disruption is exactly what we've had,'' said a London oil trader. Project delays and some production closures as a result of low oil prices, particularly in the United States and Canada, also have helped stem supply. Lower-than-normal temperatures are also helping oil prices in Asia where the weather in big consuming countries Japan and South Korea is forecast to remain cold over the next few days. That has helped ease a year-on-year stocks surplus which for indsutrialised Organisation for Economic Development Countries (OECD) hit more than 200 million barrels in the summer. The excess is estimated to have slipped to 70 million barrels by the end of December. ''If the weather stays colder than normal we could easily wipe another 50 million barrels off stocks in the first quarter,'' said Mike Barry of Energy Market Consultants in London. As spare supply wanes, sellers are starting to obtain higher prices on the day-to-day physical cargo market. Improved prices for prompt delivery cargoes in turn are erasing the economic incentive for companies to put oil into storage tanks. That is a sea change from the pattern that became entrenched last year when consistently weak near-term prices sent excess oil flooding to inventories. Nevertheless, most analysts still think producer group OPEC needs to act quickly again to underpin a price recovery by further curbing its supplies. OPEC production rose to its highest in five months in December with supply edging up by 20,000 barrels per day to 27.45 million bpd, a Reuters survey found. Taking account of higher Iraqi exports, net OPEC compliance with its 2.6 million bpd output cut package dived to less than 50 percent. The group is due to meet in March for its first gathering since a tetchy November meeting when tensions between key members Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Iran scotched any agreement. Kuwait has led calls for the group to convene an earlier meeting. But Venezuelan policy may not become clear until president-elect Hugo Chavez takes office on February 2. Copyright 1999 Reuters Limited.