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Non-Tech : New Holland and the Ag Equipment Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Shane M who wrote (39)	1/3/1999 8:59:00 PM
From: Michael Burry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 113

But will they go up if US sales decline 15-20% and global sales decline 10%? I think when a stock or industry becomes priced as if the sky is falling, it is not uncommon for the stock or industry to pop when it becomes apparent the sky did not quite touch the earth. I think this will be the case with the ag equips. On some of the threads in these stocks you see people bringing up 30 year droughts and global warming and all kinds of oddball stuff. People really think it is over. I'm hoping they do fall some more, so I can buy some more, but I for one like a situation where a stock stops falling on bad news, especialy when the stock is down 50+% and and both the company and insiders are buying shares well below book. Good investing, Mike

To: Shane M who wrote (39)	1/5/1999 10:50:00 AM
From: Bob Rudd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 113

<<But will they go up if US sales decline 15-20% and global sales decline 10%?>> Forecasting is a very inexact science, especially when it involves the future <g>. At current prices the shares are discounting this forecast and perhaps worse. At some point the agricultural economy will regress upwards to the mean pricing and these companies will generate earnings that will drive share prices back to & beyond levels prior to the recent fall-off. Will this happen in 99? No one knows. But it's a good bet IMO that the rebound occurs soon enough to generate returns well above most alternatives I'm seeing. In the meantime, there may be further opportunities to add to positions at favorable prices, but most of the potential bad news is in the stocks.