'World Future Society Holds Y2K Conference By Jim Lord
January 4, 1999
What would you expect to see at a Year 2000 conference put on by the World Future Society (WFS)? Gray-haired old think-tank guys with pipes? Intense, frizzy-haired youngsters with coke-bottle glasses and palm-top computers? (In my day, slide rules.) This attendee wasn't sure but it sure sounded interesting.
From their conference program, the WFS is described this way,
"The Society is a nonprofit educational and scientific organization for people interested in how social and technological developments are shaping the future. With 30,000 members, the Society serves as a nonpartisan clearinghouse for ideas about the future, including forecasts, recommendations, scenarios, alternatives and more."
Well now, Y2K would certainly seem made to order for this group.
Of the 130 plus attendees at the conference, more than a third were from the business community. Sectors represented included Banking, Finance, Real Estate, Consulting, Technology, Health Care, and Insurance.
Coca-Cola was there. (Hey, don't talk to me about mission-critical; we're gonna need something to put in our rum when we're sitting up there in that mountain cabin with that dog and all that dried food.)
One of the largest Harley-Davidson dealers in the country was there too. (Well, how else are my body guards supposed to get around?)
Not surprisingly, there was considerable representation from the non-profit community: foundations, institutes, trade associations, research and special interest groups and one religious organization. Four universities were represented. Internationally, Ghana (as in, the Bank of), Costa Rica, Canada (government of) and the Netherlands also sent participants.
One of the largest groups (17 attendees) was from our own federal government. Organizations included the Defense Intelligence Agency, the House of Representatives, the US Air Force, the Labor Department, the National Guard, FEMA, the Library of Congress, the US Coast Guard, USIA, and the General Accounting Office.
There was nobody there from the White House.
Three police departments were represented (Honolulu, Tulsa, and Long Beach) along with several city and county governments and one high school. Nine members of the press (Internet, newspaper, magazine, television and radio) were there. And fourteen of the attendees were "just plain folks."
In short order it was obvious that this group had not come to gather evidence about Y2K. They were not in the stage of trying to decide if there was something to this "computer thing." This bunch was all finished with denial and anger and all that other stuff. They wanted to talk about what to do. They came wearing jeans and gloves and wanting to know where the shovels and axes were kept. In a show-of-hands survey, about sixty percent of the audience felt Y2K would be a "very big deal," thirty five percent voted for "a big deal" and perhaps five percent thought "just a blip."
Some of the highlights:
John L. Petersen, President of the Arlington Institute and author of The Road to 2015: Profiles of the Future said,
"Y2K is the jewel in the next stage of human development. It is global in scale, potentially disastrous and inherently out of control."
Michael Harden, President and CEO of Century Technology Services, Inc. and author of two Y2K books, compared Y2K to the great Yellow Fever epidemic that struck the Mississippi Valley in 1878. The deadly disease, carried by mosquitoes, broke out on the Gulf Coast and slowly worked its way up the river to Memphis, Tennessee. The people in that city knew in advance that the epidemic was on its way. They knew approximately when it would arrive. They knew it would kill them. The government and the media said, "Don't panic. Everything will be all right." Relieved by these assurances, most stayed in the city. (The government would never let something like that happen. Besides, Bill Gates' grandfather will get it fixed.)
Fifty-five percent of the population died. Many Catholic nuns chose to remain to give aid and comfort to those afflicted with the disease. Most of them perished and today they are known as the "Martyrs of Memphis." The city was disestablished as a political entity and was not re-chartered for fourteen years.
Old man Gates moved to Seattle.
Douglas Carmichael, President of Shakespeare and Tao Consulting, pointed out that most Y2K information coming out of government and industry today is acutely ambiguous. Statistics such as percentages of completion are meaningless because they lack context. A claim that a Y2K project is seventy percent done means nothing if the remaining thirty percent is the hardest part of the job. Douglas says Y2K cannot be dealt with using a project mentality. Concentrating exclusively on the repair of one's own computing systems and assuming that others will do the same is an insufficient strategy. Y2K requires high-level, of out-of-the-box thinking and there is very little of that being done anywhere.
Joel Willemssen of the General Accounting Office said the government is not where it needs to be and, as a result, there will be important computing system failures. The government's Y2K costs have increased to $7.2 billion (three times the initial estimate of $2.3) and that figure is expected to grow.
According to Willemssen, the most worrisome government agencies are the Health Care Financing Administration, FAA and the Department of Defense. He stated that "most" state unemployment systems will likely fail in January 1999 which should go a long way toward raising public awareness of the problem.
Robert Chartrand, formerly with the Congressional Research Service, quoted scripture,
"Where there is no vision - the people perish." (Proverbs 29:18)
(Amen, Robert.)
At the end of the first day, Dr. Mark Frautschi, Shakespeare and Tao Consulting; Dr. Paula Gordon and Dr. Stuart Umpleby of George Washington University, Michael Harden (mentioned above) and this reporter presented a panel discussion on embedded systems. An overflow crowd stood against the wall and the scheduled one-hour session went past the two-hour mark. Few left early.
On the second day, Dr. Harrison Fox, Professional Staff, U.S House of Representatives, subcommittee on Government Management, Information and Technology (Rep. Steven Horn's subcommittee) gave what many considered the most sobering session of the conference.
Dr. Fox indicated that,
•By this time next year, the panic factor will be in full force and rationing will be in effect.
•Of great concern are DOD, FAA (them pesky guys again) healthcare and state and local governments (especially water systems).
•Within DOD, nuclear weapons management and logistics systems were cited as most critical.
•Three of the five oil refineries in Venezuela (which provides some seventeen percent of the oil supply in the United States) will not be compliant in time and will have to be shut down. These and other problems "will lead to disruptions" in the flow of oil.
•Medicare will "fail massively."
•The State Department is still in the "Quill and Scroll" age
•Unsatisfactory performance in dealing with Y2K is indicative of the poor management systems and practices in use in the federal government.
•A comprehensive national level strategy is still needed.
•Everyone needs to prepare for Y2K and they need to start now.
One of the most striking presentations came from Margaret Anderson, former principle at Booz-Allen, a large government contractor. Her point was:
YOU ARE THE Y2K LEADERSHIP TEAM.
You're here. You understand the problem. There's an unalterable deadline. There's no time to find anyone else. The government's not going to be there. There is deep uncertainty. We're all in this together. You're it. Get to work.
I got goose bumps.
Michael Nolan, City Manager of Norfolk, Nebraska, provided another inspirational moment. Mr. Nolan is one of those rarest of creatures, a public official who acts on conviction. Many felt his public Y2K concerns were "reckless" and politically risky. Being a "Y2K Maniac" is tough business (as many of you know). But today Norfolk, Nebraska is way ahead of the pack in getting ready for Y2K.
Mike Nolan is a plain talking mid-westerner. He saw a problem and knew he had to take action even though the consequences might be uncomfortable. He cuts right through the nonsense. In spite of his formal title, Mr. Nolan is not a manager. He is a leader.
We should send him over to the White House. And not just to visit.
It was obvious by lunchtime on the second day that an impressive synergy was being generated in the group. By popular request, the regular program for the final half-day of the conference was set aside to accommodate an off-the-cuff "open spaces" workshop to develop solutions.
We went through a lot of motion to explore all the options, accommodate all the viewpoints and cool all the fevered brows, but consensus was achieved in the first few moments and everybody knew it.
The solution to Y2K is community. You can dress it up in all kinds of academic psychobabble but the message is still plain. As Pogo might have put it,
"We have found the answer and it is us."
The World Future Society Y2K Conference was a clear indicator of a major trend change in the Year 2000 drama. In my judgment, we have entered a new phase of the journey.
Every new idea or product in the marketplace goes through three phases of acceptance. The first to accept are called the early adopters or innovators. They typically constitute the first ten percent of the population. This is called the Innovation Phase and it can last for several years. Next is the Growth Phase. During this period, acceptance rockets from ten to ninety percent of the population often in less time than the first ten percent. Last is the Maturity Phase during which the final, stubborn ten percent begrudgingly get on the train.
The Y2K early adopters, were (very generally speaking) ultra-conservative political groups, survivalists, fundamental Christians and hard-money investors. (If you bought into Y2K early and don't belong to one of these groups, don't fret, I'm just generalizing.)
We are now in the Growth Phase of Y2K. The issue has expanded out of the fringes and is now impacting the huge middle ground of our society. Politicians are finding out it is "OK" to deal with the issue in a serious way. Even the Federal Government is sticking its toe into the community preparedness waters. For example, here is a quote from a recent speech delivered by Janet Abrams, the Executive Director of the President's Y2K Council (number two to Y2K Czar John Koskinen),
"(T)here are some very responsible Americans coming forward and saying that our communities have got to come together. ... (T)hey want to make sure as a community that if there are a few days of difficult transition into the Year 2000 that ... you might store some extra food in a local school building. Or make sure that there is a building that has a generator where people could go as a shelter."
Thanks, Janet and welcome aboard. Those of us who have been playing this tune for many long months are happy to hear your voice in the chorus.
As we close out 1998, my Tip of the Week will be familiar because it is the single, most important step you need to take in preparing for whatever Y2K might bring. Get involved in a community Y2K preparedness effort. If there is none where you live, start one. Time grows short. If you understand the Year 2000 Problem, you're already a Y2K leader.
If you, your family and your community are ready, it won't matter if Y2K turns out to be a joke, a problem or a catastrophe.
(Incidentally, if your community leaders are dragging their feet on Y2K, get them in touch with Mike Nolan in Norfolk, Nebraska. 402-644-8750)
Good Luck and Happy New Year!
Jim Lord
Browse the Y2K Tip of the Week Archives for previous editions of this column, and see many more practical Y2K Tips such as these in my book, A Survival Guide for the Year 2000 Problem, a sample of which can be previewed at www.SurviveY2K.com.
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